SparkDAO

Posted on Apr 25, 2022Read on Mirror.xyz

SparkDAO Industry observation | Indicators of bull or bear in digital market 220425

SparkDAO is an investment research group focusing on the field of digital encryption, with members distributed all over the world. We are keen to explore the underlying logic and cutting-edge tracks in the field of digital encryption. Welcome to our Twitter: sparkdao_io

Is it either a bull market or a bear market right now?People always want intuitive data to be available for reference.We have selected multiple indicators for you to judge the status of the current market (the following indicators are all on April 25,2022 data):

1.Google Search Index

BTC search popularity in the past 5 years:

ETH search fever in the last 5 years:

2.S2F model

According to the model, the current estimated price of BTC should be over $100,000, the current actual price of about $39,000, a large deviation. If the model works, prices are significantly undervalued.

3.Btc-ahr999 Currency Index

The index measures the price of a bitcoin and the timing of purchases. Value < 0.45 is the bottom-hunting range, 0.45-1.2 is the fixed-investment range, 1.2-5 is the bull market range and > 5 is the high-risk range. The current figure is down to 0.97, which is in the range of fixed investment.

4.Two-year MA multiplier indicator

The indicator shows that bitcoin is again near the Green Line (buying area) .

5.Bitcoin rainbow band

The indicator is at the intersection of the cheap and hoarding regions.

6.NUPL indicators

The index is in a bright yellow range.

7.Puell Multiple index

The green area is the buy signal and the red area is the sell signal. The indicator shows that the current relatively close to the buying area.

8.MVRV indicators

The index fell to around 1.1(high risk above 7, super bottom below 0.1) .

9.Rhodl Index

The index has fallen back to a neutral buying area.

10.Jiang Zhuoer 60-day accumulated BTC gains

The index believes that when a bull market culminates in a frenetic, frothy one in which short-term money rises faster than new money enters the market, the bull market bubble will b and the bear market will begin.

At the peak of the two bull markets in 2013 and 2017, the Index was 237 per cent and 134 per cent respectively. In the current bull market, when Bitcoin rose to $47,000, the index peaked at 108% and fell to 34% as it continued to rise to $64,000. At present, the target is 9.11 per cent.

11.Reserve risk

Reserve risk measures can reflect long-term bitcoin holders'confidence in the price of a bitcoin at any given time.

Investing in bitcoins has a higher return on risk when confidence is high and prices are low (green areas) ; conversely, investing in bitcoins when confidence is low and prices are high (red areas) generates losses.

The indicator shows that at the height of the current bull market, Bitcoin was still a long way from the red zone (the top signal) . Currently in the Green buy-in Zone.

12.Number of BTC held by institutional funds

Funds include Bitcoin etfs in Europe and Canada and Closed-end fund in the United States and Canada.

On April 25th it stood at 850,907, down more than 600 from the last update (851,570) .

13.Location of whale wallet

The current population of giant whales, which recently soared from 2,100 to 2,280, stands at 2,266.

14.More than 1-year notes

More recently, it has risen to a record high of 64.6 per cent (less than 45 per cent is a high-risk area, according to historical rules) .

15.Total Holdings of BTC by listed companies

The total number of btcs held by listed companies is more than 40,000 more than in May last year, although prices are well below record highs.

16.ETH institutional position

The ETH institutional position fell from a high of 4.47 million to 4.42 million.

List of institutions: Grayscale Eum Trust (Ethe) , Ether Tracker (COINETHE SS) , Ether Tracker One/XBT Eum (Coineth) , coenshares Physical ETHEREUM (the SW) , wisdomethereum (eth SW) , vanecheck Vectors ETHEREUM ETN (VETH) , ETC Physical Group Ethereum (Zeth) , SA1 Ethereum ETP (Seth SW) , 21ethereum ETP (Aseth) , Ci Ethereum ETF 21010, Galaxy Ethereum ETF (ETHX/U) , Galaxy Ethereum (c $UNETHEREUM Series)

17.StableCoin market value

In 2021, the rate of growth of the stable money market value slowed from June to the end of July, and began to rise in August.

18.Ethereal Square Rainbow Belt

The Ethereum rainbow band is in the "cheap" area.

19.BTC exchange balance

The balance on the BTC Exchange has fallen from a low of 568,000 to a low of 422,000 in the past two months. The current count is 447,000, up 2,000 from the last update (445,000) .

20.ETH exchange balance

The ETH Exchange's balance hit a new low of 6.72 million last week, up slightly from 6.73 million last week.

[ note: All the above indicators are as at 25 April 2022]

Other metrics on the chain: (Source: Twitter chain analyst Phyrex)

As of 8:00 this morning's capital information, the capital situation on Sunday did not go out of the unexpected market. However, the emotional impact of the shortage of capital still broke out this morning, although there was no great selling pressure, but the BTC and ETH are still in a fand selling off, with emotional risks ahead of Monday's stock market opening, especially in the bearish Asian time zone.

The decline of funds in the chain will inevitably lead to a decrease in the amount of funds transferred to the exchange, and a decrease in the amount of funds transferred to the exchange is equal to a decrease in purchasing power. This is also why a small amount of chips can break the market, in fact, from the trading volume can be seen, this morning began to smash the market, is completely infinite downward, the overall exchange turnover is very low.

So far, both BTC and ETH have broken ground, especially the driven ETH, which has fallen below its lowest level in a month, although the BTC is still holding firm at around $39,000, however, the current amount of funds has not increased significantly. On the one hand, it is also due to the current time zone problems in Europe and the United States. On the other hand, it does not rule out the gradual withdrawal of funds, specific or to wait until the evening after the opening of the U. S. stock market out of the capital.

 *The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of SparkDAO. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.