Key Takeaways
• Fluctuating mid-month, the floor price mirrored the previous month's closing price and the impact of whale traders.
• BAYC's contracting market cap and reduced trading volume show strong correlation with the total NFT market cap, which highlights its market leadership.
• The predominance of NFT transfers over transactions and an increase in total holders suggest a consolidating market with BAYC maintaining its appeal as a long-term investment.
• BAYC's lending ETH volume showcases its strong market performance, the distinct behaviors within Yuga Labs Ecosystem—MAYC holders seeking liquidity and BAYC holders pursuing long-term value—highlight the unique community cultures.
• Despite the initial surge in activity with the HV-MTL Forge launch, the game's complexity may deter future player engagement. LOTM saw a floor price increase, but user acquisition and trading volume declined.
In this report, we'll explore data on the Yuga ecosystem across multiple dimensions. This includes news and upcoming events for Yuga, data analysis on BAYC and ApeCoin, holder trends, top sales, lending status, and the gaming economy.
For a unique perspective, we have invited @boredgentleman, holder of Bored Ape #2069 and a long term NFT trader. He will provide insider insights on key topics throughout the report.
Let's kick things off with the News section!
News & Upcoming Events
Fuck It Saturday: BAYC announced that MAYC's 2-yr anniversary would be celebrated on August 26th, 2023 in Miami, Florida. Details on tickets have not been revealed.
https://twitter.com/BoredApeYC/status/1679634411103346688?s=20
10KTF Battle.town Season 2: The second season of Battle.town is live on July 14th, introducing a series of community-wide raids and new features for more effective gameplay. The platform is now supported on iOS and Android devices and includes a Loadout Optimizer for strategy planning.
Global Community Events: Yuga Labs is planning speaking and community events globally, with the first stop being Tokyo. Ticket claim for ApeFest Hong Kong has been revealed: entry is free for BAYC and MAYC holders, with a refundable deposit. Tickets will be available on a first-come, first-serve basis. Further details on events in Korea and Singapore will be provided later. The event will also facilitate virtual attendance and worldwide community-hosted events.
Made by Apes Platform: Yuga Labs, parterned with SaaSy Labs**,** introduced Made by Apes in July 25th, a platform for BAYC and MAYC holders to use the “Made by Apes” logo for projects that incorporate their apes. The platform will maintain a directory of valid licenses and projects. We interviewed @Boredgentleman, and he said, "Made by Apes is a really good idea for a platform that not only people can go check how the IP is being used but also gives us the opportunity to show our projects we are working on individually and become a part of this group of people with similar goals."
https://twitter.com/yugalabs/status/1683595251359809537
CryptoPunks Archiving Book: Yuga Labs is publishing the first book dedicated to archiving CryptoPunks in Fall 2023 in partnership with @zakgroup. The book will capture untold stories of the collection from the community.
https://twitter.com/cryptopunksnfts/status/1672241723861245954
Data Overview
Floor Price: BAYC floor price stabilized & Whale activity influences market dynamics
The floor price demonstrated a 11.53% retracement to 29.49 ETH, aligning with the prior month's closing figure, despite peaking at 35.28 ETH within the same timeframe. On the whole, the market tended to be stable with no significant fluctuations.
The volatility of the floor price exhibited early in the month, fueled by whales capitalizing on the lower price and later offloading at the peak on July 7. This trend gradually transitioned into a slower decline in prices, prompting the whales to strategically acquire more. Remarkably, Machi accounted for 80% of the whale trade, indicating a significant influence on the market's overall performance.
Indeed, the activities of whales appeared to have an outsized influence on the market dynamics compared to the floor price's impact on average traders. The price spike on July 8th, primarily instigated by whales, concurrently stimulated a minor peak in the normal buy and sell prices, indicating a ripple effect on the broader market. Additionally, the heightened activity of whales seemingly inspired a higher trading frequency among ordinary users. This suggests a symbiotic relationship where whales' trading patterns can stir market excitement, indirectly boosting overall trading activity. Thus, while whales may drive significant market swings, they also play a pivotal role in activating regular buyers and sellers.
Market Cap & Volume: BAYC market cap contracted & strong influence on total NFT market
While BAYC's market cap continues to contract, the notable 75% decrease in trading volume for July points to a prevalent 'wait-and-see' stance among holders towards BAYC's price trajectory, and we will analyze this trend based on holders' behavior. The market cap at the month's end mirrors the figure from October 2021. However, the current community culture is markedly more cohesive and self-sustained than before. We remain optimistic that Yuga Labs' sustained growth will propel BAYC's future progress.
Interestingly, BAYC's market cap and the total NFT market cap exhibit strong correlation, underscoring BAYC's market leadership which remains unrivaled by other NFT series. This linkage also means that BAYC's trend can be inferred from the broader market conditions, offering valuable insights for strategic positioning.
Transactions & Liquidity: Transfers data surpass Sales & Buyers over Sellers
From a liquidity perspective, we observe that the number of NFT transfers notably surpasses the number of transactions. In BAYC transactions, the count of buyers marginally exceeds that of sellers, with the total holders also registering a slight uptick. This implies a market in consolidation, gaining momentum for potential future movements.
Despite the reduction in market value, the ecosystem continues to draw in a modest segment of investors and NFT enthusiasts. This endurance attests to BAYC's intrinsic appeal and its resilience in a fluctuating market, underscoring the viability of BAYC as a long-term investment.
Holders: BAYC retains appeal & attracting new holders
The predominance of long-term holders, exhibiting slow but steady growth, characterizes the BAYC holding landscape. In contrast, the count of NFTs held for less than 24 hours plunged dramatically from 263 to 24 within the month. On the other hand, the number of BAYC held for a month witnessed an approximate increase of 200. This substantiates the observation that BAYC purchased at the month's lowest floor price were retained, as opposed to being liquidated during price recovery.
The holders seem to be in anticipation of further price appreciation. By the month's end, 46% of BAYC had been held for more than a year, and only around 50 BAYC reentered the marketplace. This trend indicates a strong investor confidence and willingness to hold onto BAYC for longer terms, further reinforcing its value potential.
boredgentleman.eth is also one of the long term holders. In terms of his investment approach, he clarifies, "Let me clear that I'm more of a long term trader, not a day trader. What I'm looking for are projects that have an actual good idea, that has a team of people who have been in the space for a while, and who know how to communicate everything to the public in a hype-generating way. So yeah, I'd buy into or mint a project and then wait for a few months to take profits."
The total number of holders remained relatively stable, albeit with a minor downturn in investment addresses possessing more than 5 BAYCs. This suggests that these addresses, likely arbitrageurs, might be offloading some NFTs as prices rebound. Nonetheless, the near-100 surge in the number of holders with 1 BAYC introduces a sense of dynamism within the community.
Top Sales: High-value BAYC transactions less frequent & a less liquid market showed up
Over the past month, BAYC #1734 recorded the highest sale price at 600 ETH. Remarkably, only four BAYCs fetched a price exceeding 100 ETH, a notable contrast to two months prior when more than 10 BAYCs were sold above this price threshold. Of particular interest is the owner 0x66666F, making a second purchase of a BAYC at over 100 ETH, the first being on May 16 at 530 ETH.
This shift highlights a less liquid market and decreased price volatility. In other words, high-value transactions have become less frequent, suggesting that investors might be exercising more caution or adopting a wait-and-see approach in the current market scenario. This trend underscores the need for continued market monitoring to assess evolving investor behavior and market sentiment.
Lending Status: MAYC holders seeking liquidity & BAYC holders pursuing long-term value
Data from @paliatzis reveals an interesting insight into Yuga Labs Ecosystem's lending protocol on Blend. While BAYC doesn't dominate in terms of market share, it exhibits a robust performance in lending ETH volume, highlighting its strong presence in the market. Within the Yuga Labs Ecosystem, MAYC surpasses BAYC in lending volume, illustrating the distinct cultures within the same ecosystem.
MAYC holders appear more inclined to leverage their holdings for liquidity, whereas BAYC holders view their holdings as long-term investments. This variance in behavior patterns emphasizes the unique identities within the communities, with MAYC holders focusing on immediate liquidity benefits and BAYC holders prioritizing long-term value appreciation.
In sum, based on @sealaunch data, the trading volume of Yuga Labs' collections on Blur witnessed a roughly 50% reduction in July, yet they still constitute approximately 30% of the total market, serving as a crucial pillar of market liquidity. The trading volume saw a decline, but the proportion remained relatively stable, suggesting these collections' trading activities align with broader market shifts and remain unscathed by community behavior or sentiment.
Consequently, for holders, Yuga Labs' series is congruent with overall market trends, and BAYC itself exhibits no significant shortcomings. This resilience in the face of market volatility underlines the strength of BAYC, reinforcing its position as a robust and reliable asset within the NFT space.
Apecoin: Slight recovery of $APE prices and holders continue to grow
Currently, the price of $APE stands at 2.35. Even though prices have experienced a modest recovery from sub-2 levels in early July, community confidence remains fragile. On July 14, the official Apecoin Twitter account released the $APE Q1 2023 report. However, the predominance of 2022 data and the absence of timely updates with fresh data have unfortunately stoked negative sentiment among community members. However, we still see that the number of token holders continues to rise.
Game Economy and NFTs
On June 29th, Yuga Labs launched HV-MTL Forge, a game that combines a casual world builder and pet game that ends as a competitive dungeon crawler. Players can earn up to six upgrades for their HVs to reach Evo2 form.
HV-MTL Forge launch stimulate the initial surge & the game's complexity may deter future player engagement
In general, the launch of the HV-MTL Forge brought a temporary surge in market dynamism and made a considerable impact. This is evident in the significant rise in trading volume among holders surrounding the release, and the floor price has seen a 20.67% increase in the past month. However, we've observed that this impact appears to wane over time.
Boredgentleman.eth also commented, "The Forge is an intriguing game, albeit somewhat challenging to play. The rewards primarily take the form of decorations, which I'm unsure if they can be utilized as of now. Hence, my strategy revolves around accruing as much energy as possible within the game to compete in 'The Riff.'"
From this, we infer that the game's inherent complexity may elevate the entry barrier and potentially curb subsequent player progression. This hypothesis can be substantiated from transaction, liquidity, and holder standpoints. A comprehensive reduction in these data points suggests the game might not hold future appeal for players. This points to the necessity for considering rewarding mechanisms to facilitate increased engagement and sustained impact.
Otherside Vessels: LOTM floor price increase & user acquisition and trading volume declined
LoTM, another Yuga Labs game, experienced updates and hosted offline gatherings last month. Despite a 20.51% increase in floor prices, new user acquisition and trading volume are witnessing a minor downturn.
On one hand, many other collections has joined legend of the Mara together, which is a good sign for PFPs to be more multifunctional. On the other hand, the exclusive offline event for a small group of 40 Voyagers in LA, aimed at exploring Otherside for a vibe check, didn't manage to captivate the wider player base.
However, we still witnessed strong confidence from Ape holders. In our interview, boredgentleman remarked, "I don't think this specific game made any difference for the overall positivity of the community, but it's a certain sign that YugaLabs want to deliver what they have promised. And they will." This sentiment underscores the community's faith in the games that Yuga Labs is developing, despite the current shortcomings.
Conclusion
The NFT market remained weak in July, with the market sentiment index at 17 indicating ongoing pessimism. Many traders have incurred losses as prices continue to decline from last year's frothy peaks. However, there are some encouraging signs emerging. Blue chip NFTs, epitomized by the Bored Ape Yacht Club collection, have rebounded from their lows earlier this summer. This could signal a bottoming process and potential recovery ahead for top tier NFT projects.
Boredgentleman.eth offers a forward-thinking perspective, "Yes, unfortunately there's very little interest for NFTs right now and the market is showing it in numbers. My mind is on the Metaverse, nothing else really can bring the attention back to the space. Crypto + NFTs + AI = Metaverse. Will be insane."
In conclusion, while the current landscape might present challenges, many investors will still demonstrate enduring confidence in the potential of the Metaverse and long-term value in well-crafted NFT projects. Their focus remains steadfastly on the long-term potential of this transformative technology.
Disclaimer: The above information is for informational purposes only. Investing in digital assets such as NFTs and cryptocurrency brings with it a high degree of risk. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. NFTGo does not provide financial advice and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of investing in digital assets.