NFTGo Research

Posted on Oct 11, 2023Read on Mirror.xyz

How Top NFT Collections Are Weathering the Bear After 9 Months

We know that the crypto market goes through its own cycles. Similarly, the NFT market has a cycle of its own too. In November 2022, the NFT market witnessed a trough in trading volume, with a daily volume of about 5k ETH only. We'd like to know that, having gone through two minor bear markets in the past six months, what have become the status quo of top NFTs? Which of them are the droppers and risers?

An overall comparison of the average holding and pending order rates of top NFTs shows that DeGods has the highest average holdings of 3.45. Meebits comes second at 3. On the other hand, CryptoPunks ranks first in terms of pending orders, followed by CloneX. Veefriends and Meebits are placing at the lowest.

Then, we shortlisted blue chip collections with similar floor prices around November 2022 and compared their respective trends over the past six months. Top-tier blue chip projects like CryptoPunks and Nouns still command floor prices above 30 ETH.

Bored Ape Yacht Club sits on a floor of 20+ ETH. Projects with floors around 4+ ETH include MAYC, DeGods, Azuki, Captainz, Memeland, Milady, and Pudgy Penguins. Among these projects, Pudgy Penguins stands out as the only one with a significant floor price increase of 47.39%. On the other end of the spectrum, Invisible Friends and Moonbirds saw the largest decreases to their floor prices.

CryptoPunks & Board Ape Yacht Club

Both projects were top NFTs in the >50 ETH category last year. However, these OGs have inevitably suffered some decline as the market turned bearish. CryptoPunks dropped 26.31% from 64.96 ETH to 47.87 ETH, while BAYC lost 56.36% from 55.89 ETH to 24.39 ETH.

As evidenced by the floor price, CryptoPunks' trend is relatively stable compared to BAYC. CryptoPunks' floor price declined gently along with market sentiment, whereas BAYC experienced a greater volatility and phased upward on its way down.

BAYC's volatility is attributable to its ongoing ecosystem construction and press release, as its trend seems to be affected everytime a news is out. To add to that, lending with BAYC NFTs is also another factor not to be overlooked. Altogether, these reasons make BAYC's trading volume six times higher, and whale trading volume five times higher than CryptoPunks.

Mutant Ape Yacht Club & Azuki

MAYC and Azuki, blue chip collections in the 10 ETH range, have both dropped below 5 ETH after around six months. MAYC has dropped 56.70% from 10.60 ETH to 4.59 ETH, while Azuki has dropped 59.94% from 9.36 ETH to 3.75 ETH.

Overall, MAYC has trended downward in a volatile movement, and its floor price is also highly correlated with the fluctuations of BAYC prices. In most cases, MAYC follows the price swings of BAYC, but with a smaller range.

Prior to June 23, Azuki's floor price was on a slow upward trend going from 9.36 ETH to 16.95 ETH. The rise happened from November 17 of 2022 to June 23 of this year thanks to its tight-knit community, as well as the continuous improvements and updates by the project's creators. Besides, Azuki has collaborated with various brands including Beanz, and announced its "Follow the Azuki Rabbit" event and new NFT launches in LA.

Yet, the momentum came to a screeching halt on the 23rd and even tanked. The unveiling of the newly launched Azuki Elementals was criticized for being unremarkable in terms of design.

VeeFriends & Doodles & CloneX & Moonbirds

VeeFriends, Doodles, CloneX, and Moonbirds — four blue chip collections that were in the 5 ETH range around six months ago, are all down to around 1 ETH today. VeeFriends is down 71.79% from 5.99 ETH to 1.69 ETH, Doodles is down 75.54% from 5.6 ETH to 1.37 ETH, CloneX is down 79.97% from 5.99 ETH to 1.20 ETH, and Moonbirds is down 82.27% from 6.77 ETH to 1.20 ETH.

These four NFT collections have fallen in tandem throughout the gloomy market. By percentage, VeeFriends seems to have dropped the least, while Moonbirds suffered the largest loss.

Meebits & Pudgy Penguins & CoolCats & World of Women & Invisible Friends

Meebits, Pudgy Penguins, CoolCats, World of Women, and Invisible Friends, which were blue chip collections in the 1-4 ETH range some time ago, have all dipped below 1 ETH with the exception of Pudgy Penguins. For instance, Meebits dropped 62.20% from 2.55 ETH to 0.96 ETH, CoolCats dropped 67.32% from 1.94 ETH to 0.63 ETH, World of Women dropped 59.43% from 1.51 ETH to 0.61 ETH, and last but not least, Invisible Friends dropped 86.76% from 2.62 ETH to 0.35 ETH. On the contrary, Pudgy Penguins bucked the trend with a 47% increase from 2.49 ETH to 3.67 ETH. It is apparent that World of Women had the least fall while Invisible Friends lost the most.

Interestingly, Pudgy Penguins was the only collection among these projects that defied the market. It fluctuated slightly in December 2022 and June 2023, other than that, it has remained stable. Ever since the commencement of the bear market at the end of last year, Pudgy Penguins had borne the consequences of its internal problems and operational challenges. At one point, its floor price tanked to the bottom. But what did it do to overcome obstacles? First, the project is joined by Luca Netz, a serial entrepreneur, who prompted an all-star board of directors to attract resources for the project.

Pudgy Penguins combines physical and digital experiences through their "Phygital" line, which features physical toys. Not only does it provide NFT holders with a physical product, but it also encourages traditional consumers to enter the digital realm. The vibe of the community plays a vital role in this — to provide community exposure and sign commercial licenses with holders to promote the development of products. This strategy encourages active participation by holders and leads to a bigger social impact and commercial value.

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