SparkDAO

Posted on Apr 10, 2022Read on Mirror.xyz

SparkDAO Industry observation | Indicators of bull or bear in digital market 220411

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Is it either a bull market or a bear market right now?People always want intuitive data to be available for reference.We have selected multiple indicators for you to judge the status of the current market (the following indicators are all on April 11,2022 data):

1.Google Search Index

BTC search popularity in the past 5 years:

ETH search fever in the last 5 years:

2.S2F model

According to the model, the current estimated price of BTC should be over $100,000, the current actual price of about $42,000, a large deviation. If the model works, prices are significantly undervalued.

3.Btc-ahr999 Currency Index

The index measures the price of a bitcoin and the timing of purchases. Value < 0.45 is the bottom-hunting range, 0.45-1.2 is the fixed-investment range, 1.2-5 is the bull market range and > 5 is the high-risk range. The current figure is down to 1.12, which is within a certain range.

4.Two-year MA multiplier indicator

The indicator shows that bitcoin is again near the Green Line (buying area) .

5.Bitcoin rainbow band

The indicator is in a light green (cheap) area.

6.NUPL indicators

The index is in a bright yellow range.

7.Puell Multiple index

The green area is the buy signal and the red area is the sell signal. The indicator shows that the current relatively close to the buying area.

8.MVRV indicators

The index fell to around 1.24(high risk above 7, super bottom below 0.1) .

9.Rhodl Index

The index has fallen back to a neutral buying area.

10.Jiang Zhuoer 60-day accumulated BTC gains

The index believes that when a bull market culminates in a frenetic, frothy one in which short-term money rises faster than new money enters the market, the bull market bubble will burst and the bear market will begin.

At the peak of the two bull markets in 2013 and 2017, the Index was 237 per cent and 134 per cent respectively. In the current bull market, when Bitcoin rose to $47,000, the index peaked at 108% and fell to 34% as it continued to rise to $64,000. At present, the target is 0.42 per cent.

11.Reserve risk

Reserve risk measures can reflect long-term bitcoin holders'confidence in the price of a bitcoin at any given time.

Investing in bitcoins has a higher return on risk when confidence is high and prices are low (green areas) ; conversely, investing in bitcoins when confidence is low and prices are high (red areas) generates losses.

The indicator shows that at the height of the current bull market, Bitcoin was still a long way from the red zone (the top signal) . Currently in the Green buy-in Zone.

12.Number of BTC held by institutional funds

Funds include Bitcoin etfs in Europe and Canada and Closed-end fund in the United States and Canada.

On April 11, it was 857,189, down more than 3,000 from the last update (860,973) .

13.Location of whale wallet

After a recent surge from 2,100 to 2,280, the population has fallen to 2,244.

14.More than 1-year notes

 More recently, that figure has risen to 64% (less than 45% is historically high-risk) .

 15.Total Holdings of BTC by listed companies

The total number of btcs held by listed companies is more than 40,000 more than in May last year, although prices are well below record highs.

 16.ETH institutional position

The ETH institutional position fell from a high of 4.47 million to 4.42 million.

List of institutions: Grayscale Eum Trust (Ethe) , Ether Tracker (COINETHE SS) , Ether Tracker One/XBT Eum (Coineth) , coenshares Physical ETHEREUM (the SW) , wisdomethereum (eth SW) , vanecheck Vectors ETHEREUM ETN (VETH) , ETC Physical Group Ethereum (Zeth) , SA1 Ethereum ETP (Seth SW) , 21ethereum ETP (Aseth) , Ci Ethereum ETF 21010, Galaxy Ethereum ETF (ETHX/U) , Galaxy Ethereum (c $UNETHEREUM Series)

17.Stable coin market value

In 2021, the rate of growth of the stable money market value slowed from June to the end of July, and began to rise in August.

 18.Ethereum Rainbow Belt

The ethereal rainbow zone is between the "cheap" area and the "Shanzhai season" area.

19.BTC exchange balance

The balance on the BTC Exchange has fallen from a low of 568,000 to a low of 422,000 in the past two months. It recently rose slightly to 437,000.

20.ETH exchange balance

The ETH's balance has fallen from 8 million to 6.89 million in the past month. It recently inched up to 6.94 million.

[ note: All the above indicators are as at April 11,2022]

Other metrics on the chain: (Source: Twitter chain analyst Phyrex)

As of 9:00 This Morning, the BTC position price distribution, can be found in the market at the end of the week, the extreme prices on both sides, the ancient position has a small change, no change in the high hold. This is not to say that these holders are confident about the future, but simply because the weekend is not willing to trade. And then there's the bottom $40,000, and there's almost no percentage change.

The biggest selling pressure was still in the $41,000 range with modest gains, while losses on the upside were not low in the last nine hours. From yesterday's early morning to 10:00 AM data, is also a very rare reduction more than the increase in the situation. Since the weekend is not too anxious, focus on tonight after the opening of the U.S. stock market funds, basically can determine whether the $42,000 can be held.

This morning saw the ETH data compared to the BTC. Although the price trend is the same, the slightly better point is that the stock stock on the exchange shows a downward trend, at least as the price falls, less underweight, though, suggests that there is a stock of ETH being withdrawn from the exchange. And as you can see from the net flow of exchanges, there have been three relatively large transfers in the last 24 hours, but withdrawals are also rising.

 *The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of SparkDAO. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.