https://twitter.com/jai_bhavnani/status/1477515099967418369
🏰 1. Protocol mafias come to life
The mafias are already being built ( $MIM / $SPELL / $ICE（Popsicle Finance) or ( $FXS / $OHM / $SUSHI) or ( $TRIBE)
Protocols not part of a mafia will die.
Protocol mafias will require a few building pieces: DEX, stablecoin, lend/borrow, POL投票 to succeed.
Abracadabra Money的稳定币Magic Internet Money(MIM)
Abracadabra是一个多链借贷协议，它利用生息代币作为抵押品来铸造与美元挂钩的稳定币——Magic Internet Money （MIM）。SPELL是它的治理代币，可以抵押以获得协议的收入。TerraUSD（UST）是Terra区块链上的去中心化算法稳定币。为了铸造1 TerraUSD，需要销毁价值1美元的储备资产LUNA。
https://www.olympusdao.finance/#/
Olympus v2 OHM
Frax Share FXS
TribeTRIBE
据CoinDesk报道，12月在以太坊区块高度13850929处，合并Rari Capital和Fei Protocol的投票获得了两个 DAO 成员的批准。两个项目将通过代币交换合并，代币代码统一为TRIBE 。共有 103 个钱包地址参与了投票，合并后总锁仓价值 (TVL)将达到 20 亿美元。
🏰 2. Fixed interest rate thrives by catering to degens
Current fixed interest is just yield farming bs. We'll see the real rise of fixed interest when speculation of degen shit happens (stuff you can't get anywhere else).
This will reflect Fuse's GTM (like OHM)
理解Degens
Decrypt年度人物
“DeFi degens”一词用来形容有着自我风格化的赌徒式交易者和建构者，他们正助推去中心化金融挑战极限。它是Decrypt评选的首个年度人物。我们认为，degens代表了2020年加密货币中最重要的决定性运动。
如果想向加密货币新手解释“degen现象”，首先要解释DeFi（有时也称为“开放金融”）本身。DeFi涵盖构建在区块链之上的一系列金融产品，而区块链提供了一个不变、加密安全的交易账本，人们无需财务中间人就可以直接向对方汇款。
DeFi通过互联网实现资金融通：它取消了中间媒介，释放了新价值，创造了新商机，同时打破了传统格局。
DeFi依靠被称为智能合约的计算机代码，而非银行和西装革履的华尔街精英。这些代码独立执行，不受人为干预。它的DIY（Do It Yourself，自己动手制作）、点对点性质减少了成本开支，不再需要向传统金融机构收缴纳大量费用。此外，DeFi绕过监管机构和政府，挑战价格极限，但也可能给交易者带来巨大的风险。
铸造自己的代币的能力意味着，任何人似乎都可以通过按键创建新价值。与传统金融相比，它有赚取巨额财富的空间。
“传统金融很无聊。”前华尔街交易员DeFiDegen.ETH告诉Decrypt。“我不会回去。”
相较银行，人们通过DeFi更快、更轻松地获得贷款。它不仅可以贷款，还可以超出传统市场利率收取利息；你可以用已有的加密货币换取储蓄利息，或用它来购买其他加密货币，而无需提供社会保险号。
DeFi是金融科技的前沿。它是基于以太坊区块链的核能。如果有一天它发展到足够强大，其崩溃将需要数年时间来化解。但是，在这之间会存在着大量机会。
Degens诞生
并非所有DeFi用户都是degens。去中心化金融世界的用户习惯可分三类：一边是长持用户，他们把钱投入到一个项目中长期持有，也不会强迫性地检查账户；中间是积极赚钱的交易员；另一边则是degens。
“degen”这个词源自“degenerate gambler”（堕落的赌徒），暗指存在金融破产潜在可能的一个群体。不过，许多degens会反而将自己称为“交易者”。他们可以“实验”、“推测”或“冒险” ，但是绝不会因任何潜在损失而失眠。
The Defiant投稿人和DeFi Rate编辑Cooper Turley告诉Decrypt：“Degens是以远超正常风险偏好来交易垃圾币的人，他们愿意将多到荒谬的资金投入耕作、购买或交易刚刚上线的代币，而这些代币往往具有极高风险，但也可能蕴藏更高回报。”
这实际上是一件好事。“Degens通过将DeFi推到极限来帮助测试它的附带用例。这鼓励了开发和试验，有着积极作用。”
Degens类似于北极探险家或医学实验中的志愿者。不过，Turley警告：有一个弊端，巨额奖励会导致缺乏经验的人投资于他们甚少研究的项目。
Eth Maximalist认为这与行业领域有关，“这些人知道这是一个新领域。”
根据分析网站DeFi Market Cap数据，去中心化金融代币占6,250亿美元加密货币总市值的约3％（188亿美元）。然而，正是DeFi通过方式创新来产生、节省、投资或损失资产，从而推动了发展。它有可能给那些没有资格购买证券的人带来投资渠道，将贷款提供给那些努力争取银行账户的人，并为背负沉重债务压力的一代积累储蓄。
🏰 3. DEX verticalization begins.
Each DEX will find their niche, either in assets supported or even asset types. Current landscape will become very specialized.
(I think Uniswap and Balancer will be the biggest DEX's EOY but not strong on this one)
🏰 4. The rise of the casual token
@willwarren and the 0x team have been preaching this for ages but the tokenization of everything is real.
2022 will be the start of the 'tokens for everything.' Group chats, social tokens, etc. -- there will be so much casual experimentation
万物皆可Token
🏰 5. DeFi apps will rediscover the idea of the App Chain
Initially pitched by the Cosmos team, now DeFi projects will re-discover building their own app chains in pursuit of maximum value accrual.
This likely results in L1's becoming significantly less valuable.
🏰 6. Continued DeFi founder burnout
Look how many DeFi 1.0 founders are still active? How many DeFi 2.0 founders will be here in a year?
Individuals in DeFi are not optimizing for the long-term. This is an issue with no signs of slowing.
🏰 7. Regulatory spotlight is on DeFi
This one is quite obvious. Given the hearing at the end of the year, I expect there to be a clear message from the government: "DEFI IS BAD AND NOT GOOD FOR RETAIL"
We'll fight this but it won't be easy. I hope I'm wrong.
监管
🏰 8. More DeFi native innovation
Squeeth. Everlasting options. Just a peek at what DeFi can offer.
Individuals are finally understanding what is possible and this knowledge will only compound. Plus this industry is literally the smartest people in the world.
🧩 9. Web3 native social apps continue to flounder
Consumer social is so difficult. Adding the difficulties of web3 make it so hard. I am confident it will happen, just don't think we're there yet.
🧩 10. Better comms for web3 communities
Web3 is built on the principle of communities. We have shitty tools for talking, facilitating and leading.
This will soon change for all types of communities: DeFi, NFT's, etc.
web3的通信交流这个需要关注，有机会就要冲
🧩 11. Porn + crypto goes mainstream
It's a niche that still hasn't been cracked.
Spankchain obviously the OG but given OnlyFan's recent screw ups - there is a displaced audience looking for a solution that crypto can unqiuely solve.
色情+Crypto
🧩 12. Governance minimization
I expect governance to be shifting away from supporting long-tail decisions (ie "What should Sushi do with XYZ?") and more around a series of pre-defined params (ie Uni's fee switch).
Other decision making will go to distinct pre-defined groups.
治理问题
☠️ 13. Death: Prediction Markets
This has happened time and time again. There are too many to name (Augur, Veil, etc.).
They are starting TOO broad. The only way these work is by starting around ONE specific type of market. Regs dont help.
面铺得太广，需要关注某个点
☠️ 14. Death: Multi-chain EVM Thesis
Long L2s (zkSync, Starkware, Optimism, Arbitrum, even Polygon).
The VC's shilling this stuff will probs quitely exit their positions. There is one king and it is Ethereum.
ETH才是万链之王
☠️ 15. Death: Liquidity Mining
Protocol owned liquidity changes the game. Now you can optimize for long term sticky liquidity (via Olympus, Tribe, Frax, etc.) instead of short term mercenaries. This creates healthier ecosystems.
☠️ 16. Death: Ohm Forks
People will stop just forking OHM and deploying it with a swapped reserve currency or just on another mf chain.
BUT individuals will creatively deploy OHM economics onto new and interesting problems.
☠️ 17. Death: Crypto Insurance.
People aren't looking to go and buy insurance themselves, evidence shows this.
Protocol integrated insurance modules (like Aave Insurance Staking module) will be how people get access to insurance. I expect the Aave model to be replicated.
☠️ 18. Death: Web3-native GameFi
Crypto devs will realize they aren’t game devs. Billions of dollars will flop.
HOWEVER, old organizations that pivot like Square Enix will thrive.
☠️ 19. Death: Social Investment Platforms
This is a complete pipe dream bc bad incentives. Most indivs have 0 desire to share alpha unless they have reason.
Everything would be psyops. 2017 was full of these and we've seen them slow down. I expect this trend to fully die.
💸 20. Venture portfolios will underperform holding ETH/BTC.
The amount of shit getting funding right now is absolutely disgusting.
Discovered web3 a month ago and did CryptoZombies? Here's $10m for your new startup with 100 competitors you don't even know the names of! Gross
💸 21. VC's will build out their own building teams to stay competitive
VC's need to get more competitive.
VC's will arb the safety risk in engineers/legal/etc. who don't want to join early stage startups, employ them and deploy them onto their venture portfolio to assist.
💸 22. More and more traditional LP's allocating to liquid positions
These institutions are starting to understand crypto! With that knowledge, they are now ready to deploy and directly buy ETH / BTC / etc. with Coinbase or someone's assistance.
This will be awesome.
This next year is going to be absolutely exciting. Spent 7 days trying to disconnect from DeFi and I've never been more excited to be back.
Let's all change the world, together. Looking forward to reflecting on this thread in a year.