Summer League is quickly coming to a close after starting what feels like a short week ago. Of course, this year’s Summer League rings still must be handed out this weekend with the semifinals on Sunday and Finals on Monday. As of the time of this column being published, two teams have officially punched their way there with two more to be decided later today. Digits is taking a look at the contenders for this year’s Summer League.
Cleveland Cavaliers:
The Cavs have clinched their spot in the semifinals with a 4-0 record and the best point differential of +13.5. They do everything by committee, as they are quite well-rounded despite having zero first round selections on the team.
There’s nowhere to clearly start with this team, but their leading scorer through their four games is 27-year-old Sam Merrill, who is on a standard contract with the Cavs. In his three games, he has averaged 18.7 points per game on a blazing 48.4 3PT%. He’s a pure sharpshooter who is playing like a 27-year-old should in Summer League.
They also have a pair of #49 picks and two-way players in Isaiah Mobley (2022 draft) and Emoni Bates (2023 draft), both who have been good. Mobley is averaging 14.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, although on a not great 50.5 TS% (40.0/18.2/62.9 splits). Bates, a former top high school recruit, is their second leading scorer thus far, averaging 16 points per game on a solid 53.8 TS% (39.3/35.3/100 splits). Bates is the youngest player on this roster at 19.
The man leading the offense for the most dominant Summer League team thus far is former second round pick Sharife Cooper, who is coming off of a season in the G-League where he was All-G League 2nd Team. In the Summer League so far, he has averaged 13.5 points and 3.3 assists on a quite efficient 61.5 TS% (46.9/60.0/77.8 splits). This is just such a solid core of guys, and undrafted players such as two-way player Craig Porter Jr. (13 points and 4.3 assists per game on 56 TS%) and Pete Nance (8.3 points and 3.3 assists per game on 60.4 TS%) have made an impact.
Houston Rockets:
The Rockets are the other 4-0 team (+10.7 point differential) and have already clinched a spot in the semifinals. Their roster construction is completely different than that of Cleveland. While Cleveland had zero first round picks, Houston had a total of four first round draft picks step on the floor at some point in Las Vegas.
That doesn’t mean all of them are playing, though. Amen Thompson, the #4 pick of this most recent draft, suffered an ankle injury in the Rockets’ opening game. He was having an awesome opening game with 16 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and 4 blocks. He was awesome, just like Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason were. Those two 2022 first round selections were shut down after their second game because they were just too good. Smith Jr. averaged 35.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game on a 63.8 TS%, and Eason averaged 23.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 3.0 blocks per game on a 54.7 TS%. Note their placements in this graph:
https://twitter.com/CharlieSpungin/status/1679152884943032320?s=20
That leaves Cam Whitmore as the lone first round pick playing on the semifinals roster. Through 4 games, he has been awesome and proven why he shouldn’t have slipped in the draft. He’s averaging 17.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 3.5 steals per game on a 51.5 TS% (44.9/26.7/53.8 splits). He’s doing it on both ends and proving why he was expected to be a top 10 pick.
So, who else can help Houston win the Summer League? Trevor Hudgins was on a two-way deal with the Rockets last season. Appearing in all four Summer League games, he has averaged 14.5 points and 5.8 rebounds on 56.5 TS%. Their other two-way player in Darius Days has averaged a solid 10.3 points and 5.0 rebounds on a wild 82.3 TS%. In addition to these two, undrafted player Michael Mayer has found himself in the team’s rotation in the last two games, averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds on a blazing 40.0% from three on 7.5 attempts per game. Lastly, another undrafted rookie in Jermaine Samuels Jr. has performed well, averaging 12.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists on an amazing 67.9 TS%.
Utah Jazz:
The Jazz are 3-0 and will face the Suns at 10:30 PM EST tonight. For them to advance to the semifinals, it’s simple: win, and they’re in. A loss, and they’re most likely out. They would need lots of other results from the Heat, Lakers, Pacers, Spurs, Clippers, and Thunder to go their way for them to make it while still losing.
A win, despite playing the 1-2 Suns, may be harder than their 3-0 record says. They won’t have the 2023 16th pick Keyonte George for the remainder of the Summer League, who was playing like the Summer League MVP. Not including the game where he was injured, George averaged 29.5 points and 8.5 assists on a wild 68.0 TS%. He was absolutely dominant. Go look at his placement on the graph I noted for Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason. Also, for more on George, I did a Twitter thread on his performance in his second Vegas Summer League that you can check out here:
https://twitter.com/CharlieSpungin/status/1678836891020304386?s=20
In the second half of their game against the now 0-3 Nuggets when George got hurt, Utah was outscored 41-56. Furthermore, their #9 pick and #28 picks in this year’s draft, Taylor Hendricks and Brice Sensabaugh, have been out for the entirety of Summer League due to their own respective injuries. So, in a similar question to the Rockets, who must step up for Utah? There’s still talent here.
The first obvious answer is Ochai Agbaji, the #14 selection in 2022. Utah acquired him in the Donovan Mitchell trade last summer, and in two games of the Vegas Summer League, Agbaji has averaged 17.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.5 blocks on a 53.4 TS% (41.9/31.6/75.0 splits). He is going to have to take on a larger on-ball workload to help the Jazz if they want to contend for this Summer League title.
Luka Samanic, the #19 pick in 2019 who never stuck in the league, signed a standard deal with the end of the Jazz, and he proved to be a solid rotational piece. In two games of this Summer League, he has averaged 14.0 points and 7.5 rebounds on a 57.3 TS% (50.0/27.3/100.0 splits). As a legit NBA player, he also needs to step up for Utah.
Lastly, the Jazz’s two two-way players of last season in Johnny Juzang and Micah Potter have been quite solid. Juzang (who has averaged 15.7 points on a wild 71.7 TS%) hasn’t been re-signed to that two-way deal, while Potter (averages of 12.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists on 57.7 TS%) has. Undrafted free agents Colbey Ross and Joey Hauser -- who Utah has signed to a two-way -- have also been good.
Brooklyn Nets:
The Nets are 3-1, and other teams will decide their fate to see if they make the semifinals. Their +10.0 point differential -- the first tiebreaker -- is quite good, and the main team that they must worry about is the Miami Heat (more on this later). Interestingly enough, the only loss that the Nets suffered was at the hands of the Cavaliers, the Summer League’s best team so far. They lost 97-101.
Similar to the Cavs, this is a team that has really produced by committee. The only first round selection on their roster is their #21 pick this year, Noah Clowney. Because of this, it’s hard to point to a clear top guy for them, so let’s just begin with their leading scorer.
David Duke Jr. went undrafted in 2021 but found a way on a two-way deal to Brooklyn but is currently not on the Nets roster. In the Summer League, he’s averaging 17.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.5 steals per game on 54.4 TS% (42.3/25.0/82.1 splits).
Jalen Wilson, their #51 pick in this most recent draft, has signed to a two-way deal and proven why he could be impactful right away. The former consensus first-team All-American has averaged 16.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on a quite good 63.3 TS% (47.6/50.0/73.9 splits). He has looked awesome.
Another player who has looked awesome is Armoni Brooks, who went undrafted in 2019. A knockdown shooter, Brooks has averaged 16.8 points and 2.3 assists on a wild 66.9 TS% (48.9/45.5/85.7 splits). That 45.5% from three has come on an absurd 8.3 attempts per game.
Kennedy Chandler was a second round selection by Memphis just a year ago before being waived, and this Summer League, he has averaged 14.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 2.0 steals but on a very poor 44.5 TS% (37.0/12.5/64.3 splits). He’s filling up the stat sheet, but the impact is questionable.
Noah Clowney, as mentioned before, was their #21 pick but has been quite bad, only averaging 6.0 points and 6.3 rebounds on a terrible 39.3 TS%. RaiQuan Gray is currently on one of their two-way deals, but he is only averaging 6.3 points, 3.8 rebounds on a 41.0 TS%. Look for Duke and/or Brooks to earn two-way spots, as Gray may be gone. This team’s all-around play is fun, still.
Miami Heat:
The 2-1 Heat will take on the 0-3 Nuggets at 8:30 PM EST tonight. If you want to think about this simply, in order to make the semifinals of the Summer League, they must defeat the Nuggets by at least 13 points. This will help them make the semifinals guaranteed unless one of the Lakers or Pacers win by 21 or more points. Miami can technically win by less than 13 and still have a chance depending on performances of the Jazz, Lakers, Pacers, Spurs, Clippers, and Thunder. A loss completely eliminates Miami.
Miami is coming off of beating Milwaukee -- a better team so far this Summer League -- by 19 yesterday. Miami has dealt with injury issues, as their #18 pick in this year’s draft Jaime Jaquez has not played in the Vegas Summer League, and their 2022 #27 pick Nikola Jovic missed yesterday’s game against the Bucks.
Orlando Robinson spent last season on a two-way contract with Miami and signed a standard deal with the team right before Summer League began. He has been a force in Vegas, averaging 25.3 points (most among players with 3 or more games played), 9.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists on a very efficient 64.8 TS% (55.1/33.3/81.8 splits). He has been great out there for Miami, and they need to lean on him against Denver.
The other two-way for Miami last year was Jamal Cain, and he too has been quite good. In his three games, he has averaged 17.3 points and 6.0 rebounds on a great 65.5 TS% (52.9/45.5/84.6 splits). Not to mention, he’s been quite active defensively, as has Robinson. Miami did it again with these guys.
Miami has already signed two players to two-way contracts, those being Jamaree Bouyea and Dru Smith. Bouyea has averaged 8.0 points on a poor 46.2 TS%, but he has also had 6.5 rebounds per game and 9.5 assists per game (leads Summer League). Smith has averaged 10.0 points and 5.3 assists on a 54.2 TS%. Another notable player for Miami was the undrafted Drew Peterson, who has averaged 12.0 points with a blazing 57.1 3PT%.
After performing great in the California Classic, Nikola Jovic hasn’t done so well in Las Vegas, only averaging 8.5 points on a poor 40.2 TS%. You can read about how good he was in the California Classic in this thread focusing on his downhill attacks:
https://twitter.com/CharlieSpungin/status/1677386267687014400?s=20
Remember, think of this simply: Miami needs to win by 13 or more points for a chance to make the semifinals. A win by less gives them a slim chance, but do not rely on that.
The Long-Shots
The Indiana Pacers, notably led by a duo of 2023 first round selections Jarace Walker and Ben Shepard, can make it with a win and a Jazz loss, but that would require a lot to go their way. Pacers fans, look for at least a 21 point victory at 7:00 PM EST tonight against the Mavericks to secure a spot in the semifinals.
The Los Angeles Lakers, led by Max Christie, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Colin Castleton, and D’Moi Hodge, are in the same exact spot as the Pacers. They can make it with a win and Jazz loss, but a lot needs to go there way. Tonight at 11:00 PM EST versus Memphis, look for at least a 21 point victory.
The San Antonio Spurs need to win by at least 27 to feel comfortable. For the Clippers, the number is 28. For the Thunder, the number is 32. We’re getting to nearly impossible territory. For the Pistons, the number is THIRTY EIGHT.
Conclusion
To simplify everything, the Cavs and Rockets are locked in. Familiarize yourself with those teams because they will be in the semifinals. Then, you’re looking at a lot of unknowns for later today. The Jazz can secure a win and clinch a spot in the semifinals, but a loss would be incredibly dicey and most likely leave them short. The Heat need a good win, as do the Lakers and Pacers to an even larger extent. A lot of craziness could go down if all four of these teams lose, opening the door for the Spurs, Clippers, or Thunder to sneak in, which would be incredibly shocking. The Nets have to be feeling pretty good, as the way that they don’t make the semifinals are these scenarios:
-
Jazz win + Heat win by 13 or more OR Lakers/Pacers win by 21 or more
-
Jazz lose + TWO OF Heat win by 13 or more & Lakers and/or Pacers win by 21 or more
There’s other scenarios, but those would just be wild. It’s a five team race most likely, but the Pacers or Lakers could make it interesting and make it a seven team race. Enjoy basketball today because it’s going to be fun.
-
Charlie Spungin , NBA Analyst