The last time that a #8 seed beat a #1 seed in a 7 game series throughout NBA history was in 1994 when the Denver Nuggets defeated the Seattle SuperSonics.
Correction: The last time that a #8 seed beat a #1 seed in a 7 game series throughout NBA history was in 2023 when the Miami Heat defeated the Milwaukee Bucks.
With no Tyler Herro (a 20 PPG regular season scorer), the Heat took the Bucks and the 2x MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo down in 5 games and are advancing to the Eastern Conference Semifinals to face the New York Knicks.
This column will mostly focus on Jimmy Butler’s performance in the past series. Playoff Jimmy was born in the 2020 bubble, where he led Miami to the Finals. Last year, he led Miami to be just a shot away from the Finals. He just becomes that guy in the playoffs, and this first round series against Milwaukee was no exception.
Butler looked like the clear cut best player on the floor in the series, even when he shared the court with Giannis. He has been the best player in the playoffs thus far, with only Devin Booker having an argument against this. Considering circumstances and context though, I think it’s hard to argue against what Jimmy has done this series. Prepare yourself for these box score statistics from the 1st Round.
37.6 points per game, 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.8 steals, 67.1 TS% (59.7/44.4/70.8 shooting splits). It’s just pure offensive dominance. In the series, Butler shot 47% of his shots from the midrange on an insane 56% (32-57). Additionally, he found a way to shoot 77% (27-35) at the rim despite the Bucks having the best interior defense in the league on paper. Jimmy’s 56 point explosion was legitimately a masterclass.
He consistently got to his spots and got where he needed. His combination of strength, finesse, size, and tough shot making just made him impossible for Milwaukee to stop, and that’s saying a lot. The Bucks’ 111.9 defensive rating on the season ranked 4th, and their personnel should be enough to slow down any player in the association. Jrue Holiday is the consensus best guard defender in the league and is just the perfect point of attack defender. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a former Defensive Player of the Year who is elite as a weak side defender and uses his length tremendously. Brook Lopez was the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year this season and is an incredible rim protector. No one should cook this defense.
But they got cooked. Jrue Holiday was the primary -- and practically only -- matchup Butler saw. Holiday had 44 minutes where he was matched up with Butler, and in those minutes, Butler scored 66 points on 26-46 field goals and 9-14 from three (61.7 TS%). He also had 9 assists and only 3 turnovers. Against the best guard defender in the league, Butler was just cooking. With that said, Holiday made it really tough on Butler. He had to fight and battle versus Holiday’s strength and lateral speed, but at the end of the day, Butler just connected on difficult shot after difficult shot.
Get ready for more stats. In 4 isolations per game, Butler scored 1.32 PPP (points per possession). Among players on this volume or more, only Kawhi Leonard (1.41 PPP) and Devin Booker (1.33 PPP) matched him. In 12.8 pick and rolls per game -- 3rd in the postseason in terms of volume --, Butler scored 1.02 PPP as a ball-handler, higher than Trae Young and De’Aaron Fox (both at 0.95 PPP), who are 1st and 2nd in terms of volume, respectively.
Not only that, but Butler of course brought the defense too. He was Holiday’s primary defender and held him to 21 points on 19 shots (52.8 TS%). He was purely dominant and legitimately carried Miami to a gentleman's sweep.
It’s clear that Butler needs more help from this team, though. Caleb Martin was incredible this series, but it probably isn’t good if he’s performing as the second best player on a team that wants to contend. Bam Adebayo was amazing to close Game 5, but other than that, he was incredibly lackluster and struggled shooting. Role players, such as Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Kevin Love, and Gabe Vincent (who also almost lost Miami Game 4 through his bad play), stepped up, albeit not always consistently. There needs to be a legitimate second star, and Adebayo needs to be that guy for Butler.
If the Heat want any chance to beat the Knicks and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, they need more Jimmy Butler games.
Charlie Spungin , NBA Analyst