The Denver Nuggets find themselves tied for the top seed in the West around 40% of the way into the season. Their current record of 22-12 sets them up to exceed the 50 win mark for the first time since the 2018-19 campaign.
Who deserves the most credit for this? Of course, it’s the reigning back-to-back MVP, Nikola Jokic. The Joker is arguably the league’s best player and is making an incredible case for his third consecutive MVP award.
The most common and obvious critique of Jokic to begin this season was that he wasn’t not scoring enough. His scoring volume wasn’t at the level that it was in the two prior seasons. That was the case, but people didn’t consider that it was a young season. Through the first 15 games, Jokic averaged 22.7 points per game, and the 16 games since then, he’s up to 28.6 points per.
And with this said, people found a way to critique Jokic’s lower volume to begin the season despite his incredible, otherworldly efficiency. Throughout those first 15 games, he had a 70.3 TS%, historic levels. So, although he shot less, he was making his shots at an absurd rate, all while averaging more assists per game than ever. Why was he ever being criticized?
Right now, Jokic’s per game statistics are incredible, something that needs to be checked off to be an MVP candidate. He’s sitting at 25.7 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 9.4 assists (career high), along with 1.5 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. His efficiency is an amazing 68.8 TS%. Along with being the 1 seed in the West, he checks off all that it takes to be an MVP.
**On-off metrics love Jokic, too. Starting with the easy: the Nuggets NetRtg with Jokic on the court as opposed to off of it. When on the court, the Nuggets’ +10.6 NetRtg would be the league’s best by far (right now, the Celtics’ +6.8 leads the league). When off the court, the Nuggets NetRtg is -14.4, which would be the league’s worst by far (right now, the Spurs’ -9.2 is the league’s worst). His swing of +25 is ridiculous. He takes the Nuggets from the worst to the best, and that’s what an MVP does. **
The Joker also checks off the advanced metrics. Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) ranks Jokic first in the league with a +8.3 (second is Luka Doncic with +8.2), and 538’s RAPTOR places Jokic first with a +14.8 (second is Luka Doncic with +9.6). His impact is simply unmatched.
Just reflect on what Jokic is. He is the league’s best offensive player with his combination of post-scoring (100th percentile 1.04 points per possession on post-ups), rolling (99th percentile 1.28 points per possession on rolls), passing, overall efficiency, scoring, and mid-range shooting (shooting 61% in the mid-range). Although his defense ranks as average, he is somewhat of a defensive playmaker (2.1 ‘stocks’ per game), and realistically, his offensive abilities more than make up for his average defense. He is why the Nuggets are a top five unit offensively.
Jokic is obviously amazing and elevates his teammates, but he also isn’t alone in getting the Nuggets to the top seed. On a team with more household names than him, Aaron Gordon has been the second best Nugget this season. Gordon is having a career season, averaging 17.5 points per game on a 66.9 TS%. He has been an incredible cutter and finisher (99th percentile 1.48 points per possession on cuts and 76% on rim attempts), as he is the ideal player next to Jokic offensively. Additionally, his defensive ability has been quite good this season, although the Nuggets overall defense isn’t incredible.
Jamal Murray made his return to the hardwood this season after missing the entirety of the 2021-22 season. It felt like he had a slow start to the season, being much better in the latter half of his 28 appearances this season as opposed to the first 14. In his last 14 games, he’s averaging 20.6 points and 6.6 assists and generally looks more comfortable on the court. As he continues to improve, the Nuggets will be even scarier come playoff time.
Michael Porter Jr. is a crazy offensive player -- in a good way. With his 6’10 frame and shooting ability, he is quite a feared offensive player. He isn’t shooting to the level that he necessarily can (he had higher shooting numbers and efficiency in the 2020-21 season), but that doesn’t mean he can’t tune into that. He’s currently shooting 42% from three on 6.9 attempts per game with 16.9 points per game.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown are some of the league’s better role players with their two-way play. They were incredible acquisitions in the offseason for the Nuggets, and these two have only proved to the Nuggets that they made the correct move by acquiring them. These two, along with other role players on this team, help make the Nuggets tick. But at the end of the day, it’s back to the potential MVP this season, Nikola Jokic.
Charlie Spungin , NBA Analyst