First Published on @IOSG Medium on Jul 31, 2020
Introduction
Data was updated at the start of April 2020.
The weak correlation between bitcoin and traditional investments and high return it generated has made BTC a star in the crypto secondary market. The popularity that BTC gained from outside also amplified the impact of external factors on its price.
We believe the interests accrued from institutions investors and sophistication of derivatives will stabilize the price of bitcoin and make the market more efficient. Therefore, in the future, we believe institutions will lead the roadmap of Bitcoin becoming a mainstream asset.
Part.1 Bitcoin becomes the most popular asset in the secondary market of cryptocurrencies
Previously, participant such as miners was the dominating power for bitcoin price. However, the increase in its market capitalization has created a much more active secondary market. As the number of individual and institutional investors immerge, the impact of external factors on the price of bitcoin has become more significant.
One of the reasons that bitcoin is so popular is its weak correlation with the traditional finance market. The graph below illustrates the correlation between bitcoin and the global investment portfolio from the beginning of the bitcoin to April 1st 2020.
We noticed that there is a weak correlation between the bitcoin and financial market before the Covid-19 outbreak, however, the correlation increased to a level that has never been seen when the Covid-19 outbreak happened. Since March 2020, the Pearson correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 has reached a historical high of 0.32 (The previous values were all lower than 0.2). This demonstrates a closer connection between the cryptocurrency and the traditional market and the impact of external factors on bitcoin is more significant than ever.
1.1 Asset price declined as a result of low market liquidity impacted by the pandemic
Since the Black Swan event in March 2020, all asset classes have shown a declining trend in market price, which is mainly due to the severe liquidity problem. Recently, the US debt ratio is at 254% where the company’s debt ratio is at 75%. Since the company’s future cash flow will be hit by the COVID-19 outbreak, we believe it will further lead to the difficulty of debt repayment.
1.2 Factors influencing Bitcoin price
Mining factors, political events, and regulations are sensitive factors that might lead to the immediate shift of the bitcoin price. Although market capitalization and market structure are keys for long term price stability of the bitcoin, a subtle change of those factors will not result in an instant fluctuation of the price, as its effect is in the long run.
1.3 How valuable is Bitcoin?
Currency VS Investment/Speculative assets
The analysis by Baur Drik G and Hong KiHoon in the report: Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets? stated only 10% of total BTC addresses have frequent two-way transactions. This shows that the majority of the bitcoin holders is holding it for investment purposes rather than a medium of exchange. Bitcoin is more volatile than any traditional assets, which explains its high risk and speculative nature.
Another research by Baek C and Elbeck state that only the price difference of the bitcoin between the daily high& low has statistical meaning. All other external economic factors seem to have little effect on the return of bitcoin which means its return is mainly driven by internal market participants.
Overall, bitcoin is still at the early stage of its life cycle. Once it has been accepted by the majority, the impact of external factors will be more significant. Whether the bitcoin is an investment asset or speculative asset depends on the risk preference of the investors.
IOSG’s view on the value of Bitcoin
We believe the majority BTC investors have a preference for long-term holding for holding it, therefore we don’t think BTC is a medium of exchange yet. We believe that bitcoin has a non-quantified social value. Although the birth and development of bitcoin are significantly different from the traditional currency, it can become a useful tool for value-maintaining and medium of exchange once its market structure getting matured.
Since bitcoin is obtained by mining, therefore we think mining cost can be a useful mathematical model for bitcoin valuation. Theoretically, the intrinsic value of the bitcoin should be the cost of mining.
Researchers like Jamal from Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich studied how to do external economic factors such as the price of gold and search indexes from google may affect BTC spot prices. The regression model has an R2 value of 0.46 (i.e. only 46% of the bitcoin price changes can be explained by these factors). Given the high fluctuation of the bitcoin prices**, it is difficult to use the traditional linear regression model to explain the reasons behind the change of bitcoin prices.**
There are researches trying to explain the price fluctuation by comparing the change with google search index, we think it is not the most sophisticated method for valuation as mature investors would not research the word “Bitcoin” on Google repetitively. This type of behaviour is more likely to happen when people look up for bitcoin for the first time.
To conclude, we think the intrinsic value of the bitcoin (minimum value) is the cost of mining, its real market price may be influenced by the risk preference of investors, daily demand and supply relationship and market trend.
Part.2 The investment made by traditional financial institutions into BTC may lead to a price stability
Wall Street is going to be a strong push for BTC to grow. According to the survey by Bitwise and ETF Trends, in 2019, 76% of the registered financial advisors in America have received requests from their clients to add Bitcoin into their investment portfolio and 9% of the independent investment advisor have already added some cryptocurrencies into the portfolio for their clients. 54% of the financial advisors think the most attractive part of investing in bitcoin is its weak correlation with the traditional market. Also, the survey discovered that some financial advisors use the money that was previously invested in commodities to invest in Bitcoin. This demonstrates the digital gold nature of the bitcoin. Other attractive factors for financial advisors to invest in bitcoin include high return and demand by their clients. This survey also indicated the main reasons that stopping traditional investors entering into the blockchain are:
- 53% regulation reason
- 43% High Volatility
- 41% do not know how to evaluate cryptocurrency
- 34% how to “store” crypto
- 31% lack of understanding
As we can see from the survey data, the regulation issue is the main reason stopping traditional investors entering into blockchain market despite.
So far, we have been already seeing some solutions:
a. Licensed exchanges such as Bakkt is a significant step to boost the roadmap of regulated BTC trading and Wall Street has made it possible. However, to allow larger institutions and more investors to join the market, a regulated financial service circle is also required. As we can see, Bakkt plans to provide its own custody services, allow users to trade derivative through regulated exchanges (ICE Futures U.S.), and conducting settlement via ICE Clear U.S. In addition, top financial firms such as ICE, Fidelity, CME Group, CBOE, Ameritrade, Nasdaq, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, State Street Corporation have all invested in cryptocurrency-related companies covering trust, exchange, financial services, derivative trading platform, and investment product. The joining of these institutions allows us to foresee a regulated BTC financial system which deemed to be the prerequisite for institutional investors.
b. Institutions will make the market more stable — solution for high volatility. At the moment, the market value of the bitcoin is 11.78 billion USD. Paypal has a similar market value of 13.1 billion USD but 86.41% of its market share is held by institutions. The top two shareholders are both large public funds: Vanguard and the BlackRock with 7.96% and 6.32% holdings respectively. Looking back to BTC, the only way for institutional investors to access bitcoin is through Grayscale Trust product which only takes up 1.7% of the bitcoin market cap. The majority of bitcoin buyers are still individuals. Individuals are more emotional and tend to be more easily influenced by trendy information in the market, which creates bubbles. The entry of rational institutional investors reduced the bubble and stabilized the market.
Taking another example from the stock market, retail investor contributed 7.6% of the capital in Hong Kong stock market whereas 53% of the mainland A stock market capital are made by retail investors. The volatility indicator (standard deviation/average) for the SSE Composite index is 28% and the Hang Seng Index is 13%. It is clear that institutional investors are the key to a stable market which backs the arguments that BTC will become less volatile with the increase in institutions’ interests.
2.1 Institutions are currently paying a large premium for entering the BTC market
As mentioned, institutions are entering into the bitcoin market mainly through the bitcoin’s trusted fund managed by Grayscale. This fund focused on investing in bitcoin and therefore its NAV is the price of the bitcoin. Researchers from the Kuwait University collected the NAV performance data of the trust from May 2015 to November 2016 through Bloomberg and studied the difference between the price and NAV. Through statistical analysis of the bitcoin fund returns we found that:
The average premium of the bitcoin fund reached 44% between May 2015 and November 2016. Through fund price and NAV comparison, we found that：
- The bitcoin trust is trading at a premium.
- The standard deviation of the trust is higher than that of the NAV, which demonstrates a higher risk.
- The Grayscale BTC Trust (GBTC) has a higher return than the underlying BTC. However, we noticed that institutions are always paying a premium to Grayscale in order to get the crypto exposure. When the Grayscale revealed its first-quarter report, we found that an investor would receive 0.00097368 bitcoin if he buys a share of GBTC priced at 9.28 USD (Oct. 16th 2019). According to the market price of bitcoin at that time (8,175.10 USD), 0.00097368 BTC was worth 7.60 USD. This means that investors were paying $9.28 to buy BTC that only worth $7.6 which lead to a premium of 32%. If we look back, the highest premium was 85%.
We believe the limited choices institutional investors have for gaining crypto exposure is the cause for this high premium resulted from. This reminds us that there is a need for institutions to have a cost-effective gateway to enter the crypto world.
2.2 Will the joining of institutions make Bitcoin a mainstream asset?
Institutional investors are attracted by the high return of the bitcoin but not satisfied with the high premium they need to pay to access the regulated BTC trust. We can see institutional investors are actively developing innovative financial tools, which is a positive sign for the price of bitcoin. Geanakoplos and Fostel wrote in the Economists that the rise and fall of the American housing financing market around 2000 were caused by the financial product innovation. The securitization of the housing mortgage attracted many investors.
Looking at the BTC market, there was no derivative market for bitcoin before 2017 which means at that time, investors could not conduct a ‘short-selling’ strategy when she/he thought the price of the bitcoin is going to drop.
With the innovation on future contracts of the bitcoin, investors can bet on the price drop of BTC. For example, investors can buy BTC future to lock in a cheaper purchasing price for BTC if he/she thinks the price is likely to increase.
We found that the Swap Perpetual Contract is the most popular financial product in the current derivative market in cryptocurrency. However, this type of contract is settled in cash. Therefore, it can be manipulated using the spot market price as well as the contract funding rate.
The annual funding rate of the Bitmex has reached 300% in 2019, whereas its transaction fees are only 0.05%, which lower than the spot market. This resulted in a misconception of low transaction fees as the high funding rate could lead to an incredibly high cost, we noticed that In the first half of 2019, the 8-hour funding rate of the bitcoin reached 0.047% which is equivalent to 67% annually. The actual reason for this misconception is that high leverage will greatly amplify investors’ interest costs. Although it looks like the annualized rate is around 60%, it does not take into account the leverage ratio. If the leverage ratio is 5, then the interest cost of the principal is actually 300%. Therefore, investors’ returns may still be negative even ETH price rises.
In addition, cash-settled Perpetual Contracts can easily be manipulated. Cash-delivered futures are calculated by applying formulas, and the trading volume in the formulas is obtained from some exchanges and the manipulation generally follows the below three steps:
• Long/short the cash-settled futures or swap contract
• Buy or sell in the spot market during the settlement period to affect the spot price used in calculating the futures price
• Close the position after receiving the profits generated by cash delivered futures at the time of settlement
This kind of manipulation mechanism is well known. Unless investors know that they have more capital than the manipulator, this manipulation is difficult to resist. We can see there will often be significant changes in spot price around CME and the CBOE settlement time and such manipulation during settlement also increase investment costs.
The current cash-settled derivates also presented a problem for investors who want to take a large position. For example, if an investor wishes to buy 10 million USD in bitcoin, it is very irrational and dangerous to buy bitcoin through cash-settled futures, because the cash-settled bitcoin futures market is less liquid than the corresponding bitcoin spot market, so investors with large positions are easily triggered as price manipulators. Many institutional investors can only choose to not hold large positions due to this reason.
We believe innovations such as BTC physical delivery futures will solve these problems as there will be no mathematical calculation nor taking references from the spot price.
The idea behind derivative is still relatively complex and institutional investors are experts in this area. For example, the ICE group has obtained a license from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission and launched the world’s first physically-delivered bitcoin futures, which provides an opportunity for institutional investors to take a larger position.
In addition, cash-delivered bitcoin futures with physical delivery also makes bitcoin as payment tool becoming possible. Bitcoin futures with physical l delivery provides investors with a simple hedging method to reduce the impact of bitcoin’s high volatility.
We believe that derivatives will be one of the important windows for institutions to enter the Bitcoin field. The global derivatives market is huge, with an estimated value of over 500 trillion US dollars. Compared with it, the current cryptocurrency market is still very small with the current daily trading volume between US$5 billion and US$10 billion.
Therefore, there is still a lot of room for development in the derivatives market and institutional investor entry. From an institutional perspective, if you want to be accepted in the broader global currency market, the derivatives market is indispensable. If used properly, they actually provide a way to hedge transactions and manage risk. Without these derivatives, many institutional traders would not even consider entering this field.
In addition, the volatility of Bitcoin is relatively large compared to traditional assets, which is also the right moment for derivatives to step in as a certain degree of volatility is a positive factor in leveraged trading. One advantage of Bitcoin derivatives is that they can initiate trades with a small amount of capital using leverage, and at the same time be able to predict and control future market risks as well as price fluctuations. Derivatives provide investors with more financial instruments, allowing them to implement complex investment strategies. From a macro level, more investment instruments will quickly restore from the noises. An efficient market can reveal the true value of bitcoin and reduce price fluctuations caused by market inefficiencies.
Wall Street’s involvement in cryptocurrencies is an important step in bringing Bitcoin into a mainstream asset. These traditional financial institutions will bring more financial products to the Bitcoin market and improve the Bitcoin financial system. Under the improved financial system, more institutional investors will be willing to join the Bitcoin game. Bitcoin investors can also implement more investment strategies through derivatives, which will make the Bitcoin market more dynamic and efficient.
2.3 Bitcoin still needs innovation
Bitcoin performance problems were highlighted in the March Black Swan event. The research and development of the side chain, sharding, and other Layer 2 still need to have more substantial progress to reduce congestion when the transaction volume is large. In addition, the infrastructure for trading tools designed for institutional investors is also a good investment area. The development of the Bitcoin ecosystem from 2012 to 2014 was supported by the Bitcoin Foundation. Now we see that the Lighting Lab and Blockstream are supporting the most open-source Bitcoin projects.
Current funding of open source developers working on Bitcoin or Lightning — number of developers
Blockstrams supported 8 open source project developers. Lightning Labs has at least 8 developers using open source Lightning software. The sources of support for Bitcoin’s core project developers are more diversified. We can see that the 33 contributors who have contributed the most on the GitHub are mostly independent developers. At the same time, there are many other anonymous contributors that cannot be easily tracked. Chaincode Labs is the most productive financial supporter in Bitcoin development.
Current funding of top 33 Bitcoin Core contributors by number of commits — number of developers
So far, the development of Bitcoin has been focusing on the scalability. Lightning Lab and the Blockstream are constantly working to expand the side chain and Layer 2 solutions to stop the congestion of the main network, which also makes them the biggest contributor to the open-source projects. Diversified development in the future can make the Bitcoin ecosystem healthier, more stable, and mature. In the future, the core contributors of the community should provide funding and training for new developers entering the field and ensure that developers can effectively collaborate so that they can independently obtain sustainable funding sources.
Part.3 Future trend of Bitcoin price
Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Bank of Switzerland, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and the People’s Bank of China have continued to use quantitative easing policy and released US$3.9 trillion to the market since February this year. The amount of money released by the central bank in the first three months has reached 4.5% of the global GDP in 2019.
As a result of the recent QE, the central bank’s assets have risen sharply. Since February, the Fed’s total assets have risen by 60%. The current total assets are twice as many as the end of last year. The Bank of Canada’s assets has tripled compared to the end of last year. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s total assets increased by 43%. The People’s Bank of China’s currency issuance in the second half of 2019 remained at about 8 trillion yuan per month, however, the average issuance in the first two months of 2020 was close to 10 trillion yuan per month, up 25%. The result of the rapid expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet is a sharp increase in the money supply. According to the latest data from the Federal Reserve, the M2 in the United States rose by 18% compared with last year. Under the current situation, the annualized growth of M2 by the end of the year may be in between 20%-40%. The last significant increase in the M2 like this was during World War II, when the annual growth of the M2 reached 27%.
Will the increase in money supply definitely lead to inflation? We think there are other conditions that need to be met for inflation to happen. Taking Japan as an example, Japan was one of the first countries to experience deflation. We see that Japan had not effectively managed its deficits through monetary policies which means under the financial crisis, the quantitative easing does not necessarily lead to inflation.
At the same time, we have noticed that the economic recovery of the global pandemic is very different from the recovery of the global financial crisis. Such difference can be explained by the Money Multiplier(MM). MM refers to the amount of money that banks generate with each dollar of reserves. Reserves are the amount of deposits that the Federal Reserve requires banks to hold and not lend. In the process of money supply, there is a multiple expansion (or contraction) effects between the initial money supply of the central bank and proportional amount of increase, or decrease, in final income which is the so-called multiplier effect.
MM can be calculated using the equation: M2/Money base
- Money base is the total amount of a currency that is either in general circulation in the hands of the public or in the commercial bank deposits held in the central bank’s reserves.
- M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money.
Banks’ liquidity preferences have changed dramatically under the global financial crisis. The central bank’s adjustment of the requirement for commercial bank reserve will impact on their liquidity preferences. In the previous financial crisis, although the central bank has released a large amount of money, there is only a small portion of that money being borrowed out from the banking system as banks are required to have a sufficient reserve. In such a case, the money supply in the market has never risen by more than 10% which means there is no change in the money multiplier (money issued by the central bank did not flow to the market, but was diluted by the high reserve requirements of the commercial bank).
Recently, due to the pandemic, banks have become more cautious about loans, and the money multiplier has begun to decline.
However, the pandemic is different from other financial crises: in general, M2 and CPI (or inflation) have a positive correlation. In the case of the 2008 financial, the impact was mainly passed to the financial industry, the credit risk crisis has led to an increase in bank reserves. The money released by the government in 2008 did not flow into the market but stayed in the bank reserves led to an increase in the money base thus and did not result in inflation.
We believe this year’s pandemic is different from the previous financial crisis. Due to the society-wide lockdown of the epidemic, the retail industry and other consumer industries are currently in a shutdown. Therefore, the central bank’s currency issuance did not immediately result a CPI change (the CPI even declined due to the shutdown). However, the additional currency issuance of the central bank during this outbreak has been directly injected into society as the government has reduced the bank’s reserve requirements. Therefore, we believe that this additional issuance will increase the money multiplier, meaning that the additional funds will eventually flow to the market, resulting in the rise of the CPI and inflation. Furthermore, the US central bank has eliminated the reserve requirement for the banks, making it easier for additional funds to flow into society.
3.1 Will inflation occur?
Will the central bank raise the interest rate to suck back the previously issued funds when the pandemic is over? We believe it is unlikely. The United States is now the leading country in the global economy but also the most severely affected country by the pandemic. At present, the Fed’s core monetary policy is to achieve its target during the pandemic (a large number of additional issuances). If they do want to suck the money back, then a significant increase in the interest rate will be required to dilute the fund issued during the pandemic. It is unrealistic to raise the interest rate drastically as almost every industry in the US is funded with high leverage. In addition, the current political factors have greatly affected the independence of the Fed as well.
A large number of additional issuances directly to enterprises and individuals coupled with the highly leveraged economy increase the possibility of potential inflation.
At the same time, we can see the consumption of US residents continues to rise until a sharp decline in March 2020. Public savings have reached a historical peak due to the additional issuance of the Central Bank. The decline in consumption explains the short-term decline in the CPI, and the rise in saving proves the potential of future consumption which is a strong indicator of the upcoming inflation. Based on the cold winter situation of the retail industry, we believe that the US residents may not choose to consume immediately, instead choose assets with better investment returns in the near future.
3.2 The potential of bitcoin
With the outbreak of the COVID-19, we can see the trend of currency digitization. USD backed digital currency Libra and DCEP launched by the People’s Bank of China will make the digital currency wallet become a daily tool for the public. The digital currencies issued by central banks are not a means of value storage because of the nature of its endorsement still sovereign assets. However, the popularity of these digital currencies will help people to better understand cryptocurrencies and bring exponential growth to the current 60 million users of Bitcoin.
The BTC Exchange Inflow graph shows that since the outbreak (Q1 2020), there was a significant increase in number the purchase transactions of Bitcoins, which once again proved that Bitcoin is an investment product welcomed by the investors during the pandemic.
The current position of Bitcoin is comparable to the position of gold in 1976 when it was just accepted by the public as a safe-haven asset. High similarity can be found when comparing the recent price trend of Bitcoin to that of gold.
The performance of gold since 1976
Bitcoin is currently in a very similar position as gold in the 1970s. As the continuous development around the BTC ecosystem, we are expecting to see an upside of Bitcoin prices in the future, thus creating a current buying opportunity.
Keep in mind with the current macro-economic situation, the upcoming inflation will provide another huge impetus for the rise of Bitcoin and its price and help it to become mainstream investment assets.
Reference
荀玉根. (2017). 港股玩家都有谁：投资者结构、筹码分布. 上海: 海通证券.
秦普岳. (2017年11月30日). 一图看懂主流矿机：ASIC矿机、GPU矿机、CDN矿机与云矿机对比. 检索来源: 金色财经: https://www.jinse.com/news/bitcoin/103580.html
王学恒. (2017年2月20日). 港股专题研究 — 港股波动性认知差异的根源. 检索来源: 格隆汇: https://www.gelonghui.com/p/111125
刘雪峰. (2018). 浅析比特币产业链之二矿场经济学. 上海: 广发证券.
李雪婷. (2018). 2008 年 — 2018 年全球比特币 发展研究报告. 中国: 星球日报研究院.
钱柏均. (2020年05月12日). HashKey：读懂比特币减半后市场供需与矿工博弈，以及本次减半的市场影响. 检索来源: ChainNews: https://www.chainnews.com/articles/572098310069.htm
赤兔咨询. (2019). 比特币价格的秘密. China: 赤兔咨询.
金锄矿业. (2019年12月31日). 矿机的前世今生-史上最全矿机发展史（下）. 检索来源: 知乎: https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/100321893
苏宁金融研究院. (2020年03月18日). 黄金下跌背后的原因是什么？. 检索来源: 钛媒体: https://www.tmtpost.com/4274317.html
小吒闲谈区块链. (2020年02月25日). USDT 14天增发1.85亿美元，币圈“印钞机”启动，BTC要王者归来？. 检索来源: 知乎: https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/108955072
链比特LianBit. (2020年03月18日). 比特币到底有没有价值？. 检索来源: 链文: https://www.chainnews.com/articles/180827513681.htm
比推BitpushNews. (2020年03月21日). 比推专访韩锋： 比特币的反弹会是最迅速，最快的，明年牛市一定会到！. 检索来源: 链文: https://www.chainnews.com/articles/695234792404.htm
AlmudhaFahad. (2018). Pricing efficiency of Bitcoin Trusts. APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS, 504–508.
AVAN-NOMAYOOSATO. (2019年12月27日). US Bitcoin Derivatives Market, Highlights of 2019. 检索来源: Cointelegraph: https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-bitcoin-derivatives-market-highlights-of-2019
BaekC, & ElbeckM. (2015). Bitcoins as an investment or speculative vehicle? A first look. Applied Economics Letters, 30–34.
BaurDrik G, & HongKiHoon. (2018). Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 177–189.
Bitfinex. (2020年05月10日). What will happen after the Bitcoin halving? 检索来源: Bitfinex: https://blog.bitfinex.com/trading/what-will-happen-after-the-bitcoin-halving/
Bitmex. (2020年June月07日). Perpetual Contracts Guide. 检索来源: Bitmex: https://www.bitmex.com/app/perpetualContractsGuide#Funding-Rate-Calculations
Blockware. (2020年March月31日). Blockware. 检索来源: 矿工与比特币价格: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTk1NjM0NQ==&mid=2247489410&idx=1&sn=3c98e82d8dee02bb98bc40d635792b95&chksm=9b56e914ac2160024eadb9606084120a77f557c16eaafe221e08ff7c031bc12d0b8f65f07b05&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=&sharer_sharetime=1585578951062&sharer_sh
Bytetree. (2020年June月07日). Bytetree. 检索来源: Bytetree Terminal: https://terminal.bytetree.com/bitcoin
Cryptomood. (2020年March月12日). How Will The Coronavirus Pandemic Affect Bitcoin? 检索来源: Cryptomood: https://medium.com/@cryptomood/how-will-the-coronavirus-pandemic-affect-bitcoin-9cc35937030e
Cryptozoa. (2020年March月30日). The Bitcoin Virus. 检索来源: Cryptozoa: https://medium.com/cryptozoa/the-bitcoin-virus-37ae50e43040
D’SouzaMatt. (2020年05月02日). 写在第三次减半前：万字解读矿工驱动的比特币价格机制. 检索来源: Blockware Solutions: https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/research-and-publications/hx3hpnbbaxdy2dx8ja3gx9ka648tyk
GeanakoplosJohn, & FostelAna. (2012). Tranching, CDS, and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes. AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL: MACROECONOMICS, 190–225.
Gil-AlanaAlberikoLuis. (2019). Cryptocurrencies and stock market indices. Are they related? Research in International Business and Finance.
GodboleOmkar. (2020年June月03日). Miners Are Selling More of Their Bitcoin. That May Actually Be Bullish. 检索来源: Coindesk: https://www.coindesk.com/miners-are-selling-more-of-their-bitcoin-that-may-actually-be-bullish
GodboleOmkar. (2020年Mar月09日). Story from Markets Bitcoin’s Plunge Was Foreshadowed by Miner Inventory Data. 检索来源: Coindesk: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-plunge-was-foreshadowed-by-miner-inventory-data
HayesAdam. (2017). Cryptocurrency value formation: An empirical study leading to a cost of production model for valuing bitcoin. Telematics and Informatics, 1308–1321.
HelfmanMark. (2020). 2020: The Year Wall Street Takes Over Cryptocurrency. 检索来源: Mark Helfman: https://markhelfman.com/2020/02/07/2020-the-year-wall-street-takes-over-cryptocurrency/
HOUGANMATT. (2020). The Bitwise / ETF Trends 2020 Benchmark Survey of Financial Advisor Attitudes Toward Cryptoassets. San Francisco: BITWISE ASSET MANAGEMENT.
JonesPaul. (2020). May 2020 BVI Letter — Macro Outlook. May 2020 BVI Letter.
KöchlingGerrit. (2019). Does the introduction of futures improve the efficiency of Bitcoin? Finance Research Letters, 367–370.
LambMark. (2019年Mar月03日). Physical Delivery vs Cash Settlement (Adoption vs Market Manipulation). 检索来源: Medium: https://medium.com/coinflex-official/physical-delivery-vs-cash-settlement-adoption-vs-market-manipulation-86e8cbd48837
LaVereMichael. (2020年March月18日). High-Risk Leverage and Liquidations Crashed Bitcoin: Report. 检索来源: Crypto Globe: https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2020/03/high-risk-leverage-and-liquidations-crashed-bitcoin-report/
NetworkMetrics’ State ofCoin. (2020). Coin Metrics’ State of Netword. 检索来源: Coin Metrics’ State of Netword: https://coinmetrics.substack.com/
PlanB. (2020年04月18日). Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model. 检索来源: Medium: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12
PomplianoAnthony. (2020年03月20日). The Best And Worst Assets Coming Out Of The Corona Financial Crisis. 检索来源: Off The Chain : https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-best-and-worst-assets-coming?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo3OTQ1MzIwLCJwb3N0X2lkIjozMjIzNDcsImlhdCI6MTU4NDcxODg2NywiaXNzIjoicHViLTEzODMiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.2cpkhPdJ7-Mz6mewBrp7_PtcmcuRFl-t97QM4zYHMvQ
PurdyJack. (2020). Bitcoin Halving 2020 Explained. Messari.
Ryan. (2020年Jan月08日). 比特币会是比黄金更硬的资产？关于价值、稀缺性及S2F. 检索来源: NPC源计划: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/eTR6n8shQR46y_YWWvHIqw
SamaniKyle. (2020年03月17日). March 12: The Day Crypto Market Structure Broke (Part 1). 检索来源: Multcoin Capital : https://multicoin.capital/2020/03/17/march-12-the-day-crypto-market-structure-broke/
ShchurDamian. (2020年March月10日). 2020 Predictions — Coronavirus, Stocks and Bitcoin. 检索来源: Data Driven Investors: https://medium.com/datadriveninvestor/2020-predictions-coronavirus-stocks-and-bitcoin-48fe365cd867
SmalesL.A. (2018). Bitcoin as a safe haven: Is it even worth considering? Perth: Elsevier.
TodayBitnews. (2020年03月18日). Cryptocurrencies in Times of Сrisis. Will They Someday Become a Global Safe Haven? 检索来源: Bitnews Today: https://bitnewstoday.com/news/cryptocurrencies-in-times-of-srisis-will-they-someday-become-a-global-safe-haven/
TorpeyKyle. (2020年Jan月15日). Here’s Why Some Financial Advisors Are Adding Bitcoin To Client Portfolios. 检索来源: Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ktorpey/2020/01/15/heres-why-some-financial-advisors-are-adding-bitcoin-to-client-portfolios/#28f9d4a178a1
ZmudzinskiAdrian. (2020年March月29日). Bitmex research unveils who funds bitcoin network development. 检索来源: Cointelegraph: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitmex-research-unveils-who-funds-bitcoin-network-development