Digits Weekly

发布于 2023-05-05到 Mirror 阅读

Role Players Step Up Big Amongst Injuries

In the first round of the playoffs, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ja Morant suffered injuries due to defenders attempting to take charges. Many NBA fans and media members questioned the role of the charge in the rule book as a result, as the charges — or attempt to draw one — had caused injuries to two (highly touted) players in such a short time span.

Also in that similar time frame of early playoffs, Miami’s Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo were both injured, a big hit for the Miami guard room. Just a little bit later in round 1, Joel Embiid found himself injured, as did Julius Randle.

In the Round 2, injuries to legitimately impactful players occurred. Jimmy Butler, who has been the best per-minute playoff performer thus far, suffered an ankle injury in Game 1 versus the Knicks. In the other conference, Chris Paul suffered a groin injury in Game 2 versus the Nuggets and is expected to miss Games 3-5.

**With injuries taking such a toll on some teams, the “next man up” motto could never be more true considering it’s the playoffs. Teams need players to produce at a higher level in the absence of others. Digits has decided to look into how that next man (or men) up has performed for their respective teams in the absence of a key player. **

Giannis Antetokounmpo:

Giannis played just over 10 minutes in Game 1 against the Miami Heat before exiting due to injury. The Bucks went on to lose the game 130-117, but the general consensus is that the Bucks would be fine since the Heat just shot the absolute leather off of the ball in the opening game. In Game 2, this seemed correct. The Bucks won by a dominant 16 points (entered the 4th quarter up 33), as the Bucks shot 25-49 from three. It’s hard to say that one player truly stepped up in Giannis’ absence here because literally everybody did in Game 2.

Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday tacked on 25 and 24 points, respectively. Grayson Allen hit 4 threes en route to 16 points, while Pat Connaughton outdid him with 6 threes and 22 points. Oh, and Joe Ingles also hit 5 threes for 17 points. Khris Middleton’s 16 points were on lackluster efficiency (6-16); he was the only disappointment because it looked like the Bucks were ready to steamroll the Heat, Giannis or not.

Pat Connaughton was one of the many Bucks players to step up in Lopez and Holiday's absence.

Game 3 flipped the switch. The whole team, who was supposed to show up and define that next man up mentality in the absence of their 2x MVP, did not do what they were supposed to, to put it nicely. Aside from an efficient 23 point game from Khris Middleton, nobody else really lived up to their expectations and did what they were supposed to do, resulting in a 121-99 loss. Giannis would return the next game and average 32/15/8 for the final two games of the series, both losses.

Conclusion: Everybody was supposed to step up, and they did for one game and most definitely did not.

Chris Paul:

We actually have not yet seen the Suns without Chris Paul (averaged 13.2 points, 7.7 assists 47.7 TS% in the opening six games of the playoffs) this playoff stretch. The Suns are expected to play tonight (Friday) at 10 p.m. EST.

It’s actually unclear who Monty Williams and company will choose to replace CP3. The obvious answer is likely Cam Payne, a true point guard who can slide into the role CP3 played as he has done in the past while a Sun. He shot 36.8% from three this past season and is able to provide spacing for Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in theory, and he can attack off the drive and kick. Perhaps we may not see Payne today because in Game 2, he finally made his way back into the rotation and shot 1-7 (0-4 3PA) in 17 minutes with 4 fouls. Still, my bet would be we see Payne.

Despite his lackluster Game 2 performance, Payne has done a solid job in filling in for the injured CP3.

Damion Lee also could be an option for Phoenix if they want to have Devin Booker play the point guard role. Lee shot a lights out 44.5% from three in the regular season, but in the playoffs thus far, that number has dipped to 23.1%. When he isn’t making shots, he truly isn’t impactful. His movement shooting brings a different element offensively for Phoenix in theory, but the Nuggets likely won’t place much attention on the cold Lee since they have KD and Booker to focus on.

Josh Okogie has started this series in order to focus on slowing down Jamal Murray, moving Torrey Craig to the bench after the Clippers series. Craig is a good defender, but he isn’t quite as fit to slow down Jamal Murary due to his inferior screen navigation to Okogie. The Suns could choose to go big by putting Craig back into the lineup, especially since he is shooting 50% from three this postseason.

Conclusion: The Suns need everyone outside of Booker and KD to step up in the absence of Chris Paul, especially the three players mentioned just above since they will see the most minutes increase (looking mainly at Cam Payne).

Victor Oladipo/Tyler Herro:

These two are being grouped together since (1) they are both Heat guards, and (2) they both got hurt before the Round 1 series versus Milwaukee even came to Miami. Herro was injured after 19 minutes in Game 1, where he had already scored 11 points and proved Grayson Allen couldn’t slow him down. Victor Oladipo was hurt in Game 2 after giving Miami 15 points in Game 1 while obviously bringing high defensive energy and prowess.

And this is where we need to give Gabe Vincent, Kyle Lowry, and Duncan Robinson their flowers.

Gabe Vincent’s 41.3 FG% may look ugly, but he’s shooting 62% of his shots from beyond the arc and is becoming the much needed pull-up threat that Miami has needed in the absence of Herro. He’s averaging 15.1 points and 5.0 assists on 40.4% from three in the playoffs. In the regular season, 59% of his shots were assisted on, but with Herro out, that number has dipped to 37% in the playoffs, a completely different shot diet. Of course, he is out there battling defensively, too, helping make up for some of the Victor Oladipo loss.

Talk about a rejuvenation, and it should be talked about more: Kyle Lowry. 8.9 points and 4.0 assists on 53.5 TS% doesn’t stand out as good, but Lowry has given the Heat timely buckets and has held up defensively. 36% of his shots were assisted on in the regular season, a number that has fallen to 26% in the postseason. He has been a maestro in the pick and roll, scoring 1.26 points per possession as the ball-handler.

Duncan Robinson shot 14-19 from three in the Bucks series, including a 5-6 Game 3. His gravity offensively is just so valuable offensively, as it opens up drives for ball-handlers such as Vincent and Lowry. Defenses have to give him the utmost attention when running all around the court, and his ability to hit shots, particularly in Round 1 (we have not seen Round 1 Robinson yet versus the Knicks), is very important for Miami.

Duncan Robinson may not have had the season he hope to have, but he came up big in Miami's Round 1 beat down of the Bucks.

Conclusion: The Heat guards’ pull-up shooting and shot making has really helped make up for what was lost with Herro and Oladipo, even if lacking a true point of attack now that Oladipo is out (though Jimmy Butler and Vincent can fulfill this role, certainly).

Joel Embiid:

The recently-crowned 2023 MVP led the league in scoring in the regular season with 33.1 points per game, while also tacking on 10.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.7 blocks while maintaining a 65.5 TS% (54.8/33.0/85.7 splits). Just incredible. The persistent (and only) issue with Embiid, however, is his durability. In his absence of Game 4 versus the Brooklyn Nets and Game 1 versus the Boston Celtics, Paul Reed was the man who took the starting center job.

In those two games, Reed averaged 10.0 points and 14.0 rebounds (6.0 offensive!) on 63.5 TS%. Of course, Reed wasn’t Embiid, but he also was not bad in the starting center role, getting two wins in two tries. He provided good rim protection as well, although he did not do so in the first half of the Celtics game. Certainly though, he needs a shoutout for the second half of that game and particularly how he closed it, getting big stops defensively and draining four clutch free throws to ice the game for Philly after shooting 74.5% from the line through the regular season.

Conclusion: Paul Reed was solid enough to keep the ship afloat for the 6ers, but if they want to win a title, they need Embiid out there.

Jimmy Butler:

Jimmy Butler has been the clear-cut best player in the playoffs. I wrote about it last week because of just how dominant he has been: 35.5 points per game, 6.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 66.2 TS% (58.5/42.9/72.9) splits. He gets to his spots and drains shots. Unfortunately, with a few minutes to go in Game 1 versus the New York Knicks, Butler got tied up with Josh Hart (who flopped, by the way…) and injured his ankle, ruling him out for Game 2.

Game 2 was the Caleb Martin game. He provided downhill juice for the Heat in the absence of Butler, as well as bringing it defensively and taking on the Jalen Brunson matchup (and battling with Julius Randle when he needed to, too). Martin put up 22 points and 8 rebounds while shooting 8-15 (4-8 from 3) in a game that Miami should have won, but very questionable officiating ultimately took them out of it, but that is aside from the point. I am quite the biased Heat fan, but Martin was just huge and has been huge all playoffs, as he has arguably been the Heat’s second best player through the postseason.

Martin came up big when the Heat has needed him most throughout the playoffs thus far.

Conclusion: Caleb Martin’s Game 2 explosion in Jimmy Butler’s absence should not be a shocker given his performance all postseason, and it was almost enough to take a 2-0 lead while heading back to Miami. The Heat are the ultimate “next man up” team.

Ja Morant:

After Ja Morant’s scary Game 1 injury, the Grizzlies were heading into Game 2 without their star player and down 1-0 while on their home floor. It really felt like a must-win game, and even without Ja (26.2 points, 8.1 assists per game, 55.7 TS% during regular season), the Grizzlies found a way to get it done.

And it was an ugly 101-91 win, where the Grizzlies shot 42.7% from the field and 30.6% from three and found a victory since the Lakers shot worse in both statistics. Morant’s literal replacement Tyus Jones didn’t even play great, scoring 10 points on 11 shots (though he added 8 assists). Desmond Bane, who would be expected to pick up most of the scoring load, scored 17 points on 6-18 shooting, and Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 18 points on 5-12 shooting. Who was good?

Xavier Tillman scored 22 points on 10-13 shooting, and Luke Kennard scored 13 points with 3 3s to ultimately edge a victory. The defense, particularly JJJ and Tillman’s, accelerated the Grizzlies to a big win and kept them alive. They would ultimately lose in 6 games in embarrassing fashion.

Xavier Tillman proved his value in Morant's absence on both ends of the floor.

Conclusion: The Grizzlies found a painful victory in the absence of Morant, and they would still go on to lose the series. Not good.

Julius Randle:

Randle had an amazing regular season, bouncing back from a poor (by his standards) 2021-22 season. An all-star once again, he averaged 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on 58.1 TS%. However, he continued his poor playoff performance in Round 1 after such a good regular season. In the full four games he played in Round 1, he averaged 14.8 points on 41.5 TS%. It was quite rough.

Randle was injured at the end of Game 5, the close-out game, versus the Cleveland Cavaliers, which made him miss Game 1 versus the Miami Heat. Obi Toppin replaced Randle in the starting lineup, and ironically enough, Toppin was the only guy who could hit a shot. He shot a solid 4-11 from three, while the rest of the team shot 3-23 from three. Toppin’s 18 points in the game trailed Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett, but he was legitimately an important contributor in a close game. This shouldn’t be a shocker, though; in 5 games where Randle didn’t play this regular season, Toppin averaged 21.8 points and shooting 44.4% from three.

Toppin filled in Randle's shoes quite well in Game 1 against the Heat, and has shown throughout the regular season that he can do so.

Conclusion: Toppin did a quality job stepping up in Randle’s absence, but it’s good that Randle’s back; in his return (Game 2) versus Miami, Randle put up 25 points and was very important for the New York victory.

Charlie Spungin , NBA Analyst

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