Digits Weekly

发布于 2023-06-16到 Mirror 阅读

Bradley Beal Offseason Moves?

**It feels like every summer for the past decade that Bradley Beal offseason trade rumors have arisen, but this year’s rumors of the Wizards star being traded feel more real than ever. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski has reported that the Wizards and Beal will discuss trade scenarios together. **

Beal’s no-trade-clause assures that -- if traded -- he will end up at a destination that he finds favorable. As a result, the Wizards have no option but to cooperate with Beal if they would like to trade him. Unfortunately for them, Beal’s value isn’t particularly high right now.

When combining the fact that Beal’s contract has four years and $208 million remaining (he is owed $57 million in 2026-27) and that he has not played over 60 games in any of the past four seasons, it’s easy to see why the Wizards won’t be able to get a great package for Beal. His massive contract and injury concerns mean that they will have to trade him for a package that certainly undersells his actual ability on the floor.

Beal's injury worries and large contract makes him a concern by potential teams.

Beal’s Offensive Advantage

News flash, despite what Twitter may tell you: Bradley Beal is still a really good basketball player. Sure, the defense isn’t super intriguing with Beal, but that offensive talent is still there. Look at the box score, and you’ll see ‘just’ 23.2 points per game last season. That could lead you to think Beal just can’t score and bring legitimate, elite offensive value to a team, but that’s far from the truth. He’s still in the 95th percentile of offensive players.

The best part about Beal offensively is that he can bring value either with or without the ball. With the ball, he is dynamic with a clear-cut ability to create his own shot as a true three-level scorer, a label that is applied to too many players nowadays. Very quietly, Beal just had his most efficient season since 2016-17.

Beal is a great pull-up threat, having shot 44.2% on 7.3 attempts this past season. He was particularly deadly on pull-up twos, shooting an elite 49.0% there. What made him so efficient (again, quietly) was his vastly underrated ability to get to the rim. Among players with over 30 games played, Beal finished 8th in drives per game (15.9). Rim pressure is something that has become increasingly important to NBA front offices, as it forces defenses to react, and Beal certainly does this.

Perhaps his rim pressure could become more relevant than ever going forward, too. Beal just shot a career-high 71.7% at the rim this past season. This ability to both to get to his efficient pull-ups and the rim makes him deadly as a pick-and-roll ball handler, where he scored 0.93 points per possession, ranking in the 93rd percentile. All of this offensive ability is just with the ball, too.

Beal may be just as good as an off-ball player as an on-ball player, which is scary. He’s willing to play as a mover and cutter, which means he can certainly fit on a contender. The Wizards ran actions for him coming off of pindowns, as a ghost screener, and more. Beal scored 1.08 points per possession coming off of handoffs, good enough for the 99th percentile. He scored 1.35 points per possession as a cutter, good enough for the 89th percentile. He shot 40.0% on catch and shoot threes, and because of his on-ball abilities, he is adept at attacking closeouts.

Beal's ability to play off-ball is something that appeals to potential teams, giving him the versatility to play with other superstars.

With all of this scoring versatility, Beal commands defensive attention, which opens up his playmaking. He isn’t an elite playmaker, but he is skilled enough to find the open man on the occasional skip pass, pocket pass to the roller, or kick to the wing or corner for a three. A team shouldn’t rely on him to be a primary playmaker, which is why the Wizards had guys like Monte Morris and Delon Wright.

On the Wizards, Beal had the ball more than any of his teammates. He certainly could still thrive in a role where he may be second in touches because he doesn’t need the ball to be effective. He does everything to make him an elite offensive talent, one that every team could use. With Beal on the floor this past season, the Wizards’ offensive rating was 118.8, which would have ranked 2nd in the league.

Potential Landing Spots

If you’re the Heat, you have to consider Beal. He is a clear-cut upgrade to Tyler Herro despite what some of Heat Twitter may tell you. He might be the offensive piece to put you over the top. If you’re the Bucks, you have to consider Beal. Khris Middleton is showing signs of aging amid injuries, and Jrue Holiday’s scoring is a disappearing act in the postseason. This is the offensive piece they may need. To me, these are the two teams that should be considering Beal the most.

Rumors floating around say Beal might land in Miami, who would be an upgrade to what the Heat currently have in Herro.

The Kings and Knicks are also rumored to be in on the sweepstakes, and while they make sense, these teams don’t have the (1) the ability to win now like the above two teams do or (2) the defensive infrastructure to cover Beal’s lackluster defensive ability. The Heat and Bucks could really use a guy like Beal.

So while the contract, injuries, and defense may arise as an issue, let’s not act like Beal isn’t a good basketball player. For a lower price than ever, Beal could be worth the swing due to his somehow under-discussed elite offensive talent.

Charlie Spungin , NBA Analyst

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