Digits Weekly

Posted on Dec 02, 2022Read on Mirror.xyz

Top 6 MVP Candidates: Per Division

In the NBA, divisions have less importance than other major American sports leagues like the NFL. In the latter, teams play their division rivals in 35.3% of their regular season games, and one team from each division must make the playoffs. In the former, only 19.5% of matchups are interdivisional with no playoff guarantee. So, why not give divisions their recognition and notice? Though they are not incredibly significant, they guarantee four matchups per year between teams every single year. Division opponents still play each other more than non-divisional ones, and that’s for sure. Some divisions, naturally, are stronger than others. Each has a player -- or multiple -- who somebody can point to and say “that guy is a superstar”. In addition to this idea, people love debating the idea of the MVP. Combining these ideas, that begs the question: who is the MVP of each division this season? Here’s Digits’ answer and rankings:

6. Southeast Division: Trae Young

This is undoubtedly and clearly the worst division MVP. If Jimmy Butler had played more games, this would surely go to him. When you’re as good as Young is offensively, there’s some reason to be okay with his quite subpar performance on the other side of the court. Saying this, however, Young is shooting poorly this season: 46.7 2PT%, 30% 3PT% (7.4 3PA), 54.5 TS%. Even then, he has been one of the best offensive players in the league still, largely due to his offensive gravity and playmaking. He’s averaging 27.8 points and 9.6 assists. Also strengthening his Southeast MVP case is the Hawks ranking 1st in the division with a 12-10 record.

Despite the drop in shooting %'s this season, Young has put up good enough numbers to place him at the top of the division that lacks the most talent.

5. Central Division: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Consensus right now seems to be that Giannis is the best in the world, and rightfully so. He’s up to a career high in points per game at 31.3, but his efficiency of a 57.9 TS% is at its lowest since Giannis became an all-star in the 2017 season. He is still the defensive force he has been, but Giannis clearly isn’t at the top of his game right now. Regardless, the Bucks sit atop the Central Division with a 15-5 record even without Khris Middleton thus far. Giannis is absolutely, undeniably great, but with the way that others are currently playing, it’s difficult to place him higher 5 for now.

The Greek Freak is back to his freakish ways this season, as he holds a career high 31 ppg so far this year.

4. Southwest Division: Luka Doncic

1-4 could seriously be ordered in any way. If Doncic was at 1, there’s really no complaints. We haven’t seen a player as ball-dominant and as heliocentric as Doncic this season since James Harden’s Houston days (this is not slander). The Mavericks sit at a 10-10 record entering Thursday night’s action, and without Luka, there’s no doubt that this team would be at the bottom of the league. His averages are simply absurd: 33.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 8.6 assists with a 60.5 TS%. That’s even with a subpar 31.5 3PT% for now, which is bound to go up. Ultimately, what holds Doncic back from the first place spot here is the lack of team success.

Luka Magic has somehow improved his numbers from last season. On the verge of averaging a 30+ point triple-double, he could fairly be placed at No. 1

3. Pacific Division: Stephen Curry

What places Curry here is the lack of team success, as the Warriors sit at 4th in their division currently with an 11-11 record. His individual performance has been incredible, arguably better than ever. He’s averaging 31.4 points and 7.0 assists per game (highest since 2015 season!) on a career high 68.2 TS%(!). That’s straight up absurd. He has been the offense for the Warriors this season. Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) places Curry first in the league with +8.9. Curry’s on-off NetRtg is a +26.2. He’s been that important for the Warriors.

Curry has been having another MVP-esque season. And given the success of the team, that might just happen.

2. Northwest Division: Nikola Jokic

The main talking point about Jokic this season is his scoring decrease, which is sad. He’s the reigning MVP, and he deserves so much more discussion than a scoring drop. Even though his points per game has decreased from 27.1 to 22.7 this year, this really needs to be contextualized. In addition to the return of Jamal Murray and minutes decrease (33.5 → 31.7), Jokic has been taking 4.4 less shots per game. On these shots, however, Jokic’s efficiency is notable: he’s currently sitting at a 70.6 TS%(!!). He’s doing the usual passing, too, with a career high 8.9 assists per game currently. The Nuggets sit first in the division, and Jokic’s impact is immeasurable. His on-off NetRtg is at +26.1, and he leads the league in 538’s RAPTOR at +14.3.

The decrease in scoring is nothing of concern for the success of the Denver Nuggets and the reigning MVP.

1. Atlantic Division: Jayson Tatum

The Boston Celtics should be title favorites right now, pretty evidently. This is, of course, largely due to Tatum. His scoring has jumped to incredible levels at 31.6 points per game on a 63.5 TS%. Not to mention, there’s the argument that Tatum is a top 3 perimeter defender, as over his career, he has elevated himself to an undeniably elite on that end of the court. With Tatum on the court, Boston’s offense is at a 125.5 ORtg, which would rank as the highest of all-time. His two-way play and Celtics’ domination of their division (6 games ahead 2nd place Raptors) warrants Tatum’s first place spot here.

Combined with his best offensive output ever, his 2-way play, and leading arguably the best team in the NBA, you can't go wrong with Tatum as your MVP.

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