This article is bilingual, with Chinese first and English following.:)

当你看到这行文字，首先感谢你一直以来的支持。

这篇文字是专门为 Mirror 和 The Alpha K Telegram Channel的订阅读者、FT Room一直在的小伙伴写的，因为没有在此之外的任何地方公开发布或是提醒过这篇更新。

简言之，这篇文章是写给一直以来关心和支持我的朋友的交代。

2023 年是无比充实的一年，有太多新东西涌现，特别是 crypto 之外的创新。

对我来说，这一年的经历过于坎坷：

• 在亚马逊雨林被树砸头（两次）；

• 在加拉帕戈斯群岛差点海上失踪；

• 在上海打滴滴司机撞人，我的颈椎因此拉伤进康复科（真的很疼，比胆结石发作还折磨人）；

• 至少有 4 个月在遵医嘱“多休息 不要思考”；

• 跨年前4天在泰国意外被蚂蚁咬伤，收获肿手一只……

在此期间，一边承受着来自肉身和精神的双重痛苦折磨，一边遭遇了很多完全意想不到的背刺，包括来自曾经出钱出力协助过很多的人。

但也：

• 照旧看了不少书；

• 走遍大半个地球；

• 交到不少新的朋友；

• 关键时刻理清了策略，

• 没错过大部分 crypto 的新机会；

• 最终留下的朋友大多也跟着一起 to da moon，

• （几乎 +0 🐣，哈哈~）

以前，经常做一些遥远的慈善，似乎对任何人都拥有无尽的同理心，简直就是一个烂好人+免费咨询，唯独对自己糟透了。

现在，则是将心思用于自己和留在身边的亲朋好友，很少说，更多做，不求纯粹，只认真理。

作为年度总结，总归还是附上一些干货。

关于如何在 Crypto 稳定地寻找 Alpha，以下是今年 1 月在 The Alpha K Telegram Channel 里写的内容，愿这些对你有参考价值：

昨天在 ChainFeeds 群组看到小毛哥提示，Matti 近日更新了“论「反身性」与「模仿」”的第三篇，也是最后一篇：

Part 3: https://wrongalot.substack.com/p/on-reflexivity-and-imitation-part-781

Part 1: https://wrongalot.substack.com/p/on-reflexivity-and-imitation

Part 2: https://wrongalot.substack.com/p/on-reflexivity-and-imitation-part

似乎之前看过前两篇的中文版，于是又重新读了一遍三篇文章的原文。

个人观点是，尽管这些文章可以帮助大部分普通读者理解加密市场，但若是想成为深度参与者，仅仅专注于 反身性 的存在，很容易面对问题时，简化整个框架，难以提高预测结果的确定性；因为它只是从一个视角描述了现状，但没有告诉人们如何面对现状，改变自己，做出对更加有利的决策。

By the way，这些文章和其他领域相关的讨论都是共通的，比如，近期看的《汤质看本质》对于逻辑学的总结，以及我在 6 年前写一部短科幻时，试图总结《易经》、文学理论和科技设定的共通之处，从而建立了一个基本思考框架，它在过去这些年一直协助着我创作核心科幻和研究 Crypto & Web3，一边汲取更多信息去归纳总结，一边做出尽可能有效的预测（回头看，至少对大部分预测的准确感到满意）。

当我们面对某个行业或是赛道时，面对的是无数个该框架的相互重合，需要理解市场归市场，行业归行业，技术归技术，产品归产品，代币经济归代币经济，操盘归操盘。

然而，阅读 Web3 文章时，你会发现大部分作者仅仅是将某一个面当成全貌去构建一个看似合理的框架，很快推出结论，而市场的巧合结果会让人产生思维惯性，最终盈亏同源，怀疑自我。（尽管一些文章可能是作者考虑了读者，绕了一圈，又回到大家习以为常的叙述方式，目的是传播结论。）

真正的预测要求预测者自己先穿透叙事和表象，找出最核心的影响因素。

如何做出尽可能有效的预测？（以 Crypto 为例）

1）→ 2）→ 3）→ 4）→ 1），5）在中心位置。

1）世界（行业 & 市场）：尽可能客观、不带偏见地汲取充足的信息 ——不论是成为人形爬虫一样的存在，还是借助工具和助理提高效率；

2）参与者（项目团队 & 用户 & 做市商 & 交易所 & 开发者 & 交易者 等）：尽可能全面认识到有谁在参与你关注的空间，他们中的大多数有何种特性，尽可能收集足够多的信息，辅助判断他们面对某个具体问题时，最可能做出什么选择；你可以将参与者作为主视角，画出不同的框架；

3）作品：即 2) 造成的结果产物，它可以是任何东西或事件；

4）受影响者：他们同时也是其他框架中参与者，他们及其行为，构成世界；

5）意：在此案例中，你可以将它理解为你的内核，它决定你在关键时刻的所有选择，引导你对于整个循环的判断，内核越稳定，能处理越复杂的问题，越能对整个框架有更清晰的认知，做出对个人更有利的判断。

当然，这并非易事。前面已经说过，Crypto 世界不是一个简单框架，而是一个又一个视角不同的框架的重叠。即使知道这一点，也还是会撞上知识盲区的墙，甚至在某一刻，心生学海无涯而生有涯的无奈感。

大部分人会选择肝的方式，覆盖尽可能多的选项，以提高命中率，比如部分机构的海投风格，部分 KOL 看到新项目就提（提高覆盖 alpha 的可能性，增加影响力），部分博取空投的用户看到项目就每天机械交互 …… 当行业发展越成熟，项目越来越多，这种偷懒的方式就越来越不可取，因为它会耗尽你的能量，让你停滞不前。

然而，在你将预测流程训练到能够快速判断之前，你很可能会陷入 Matti 文章所言的 mid-IQ 困境，开始怀疑自己是不是错了，是不是退回无脑梭哈的方式更好 —— 你往往会在思考过多的项目水涨船高的时候这么想，一旦你犹豫再三、决定无脑梭哈，你可能就会被长久挂在 ATH 的位置。

我并不认为 crypto 世界完全无法预测；如果预测无效，主要问题是当事人建立的模型不足以处理非常复杂的系统问题，只讨论技术 & 产品 & 市场 & 行业 & 操盘，都只能得出确定性极低的结论，和赌博无异。

我们终归还是要回过头面对最本质的问题：生而为人，如何认识世界和探索世界？如何透过思考、优化思考的模式，去拓展我们认知的疆界？

当然，如果在此的主要目的中依然包含赚钱，记得在能够快速预测之后，一定要返璞归真，告诉自己：【去 tmd，梭哈！】

当市场足够疯狂的时候，【去 tmd，梭哈！】就需要变成【先买后研究】，甚至不研究，在某一期限内给自己放假，因为你的模式告诉你，此时此刻，起决定性作用的参与者是谁，你需要将以他们为主视角的框架放在第一位，得出这个结论。

当学会随时拉高执行力 + 坚信认知去做出抉择，复杂的思考才会转化更有力的行动和结果，作为鼓励当事人继续前往的 bonus。

P.S.

这周我从曼谷的小日本跑到了入海口附近的北榄府，一个偏远得不像是曼谷的地方。若是一些小巷没有时不时闪现的泰文，我会误以为我身处台南或者越南的某个社区。

我花了 6 泰铢搭当地的小船去对岸，再过桥到河心，那里有一座几乎被水淹没的小岛，岛上是名为蝴蝶堡的军事堡垒，在暹罗时期扮演过较为重要的角色。我站在一座空无一人的遗迹里，想起一个人在萨拉热窝爬山的时候，曾在路尽头的一座堡垒遗迹停下。

比起长期生活在同一个地方，我更愿意过游牧的生活，争取做个世界公民；在此过程中，依然在不断做着和预测相关的脑部训练，无时不刻不在接触新的世界，需要记住陌生的地名和环境，会不由自主想起相似的地点，不由自主去归纳和总结，最终形成一套自己对物理世界的认知。（如同上一段，在某些时刻，也会有一些属于文学的灵感跳出来。）

就像很久以前我们在 DAppChaser 做测评，所有的项目文章都坚持先测后评一样，像孩童一样去不断了解世界，不断问自己追求未来过上何种生活，扮演何种角色，最后再做选择，哪怕最后还是绕了一圈回到原点。

世上单纯者无数，而返璞归真者寥寥无几。没有好与坏，唯有选择与代价。

这篇文章的最后，没有任何 NFT，只有祝福：希望各位 2024 年都能平平安安。

我想，当下的世界之所以如此糟糕，很大一部分原因是大部分人总是思考过多别人的事，而自己的部分却从不顾及。

如果你是和曾经的我类似的 creator，希望你可以在新的一年里对自己更温柔和专注一点，唯有强大而稳定的自我，才能在纷繁复杂的世界里活得精彩，才可能可持续地兼济他者。

总而言之，谢谢各位的厚爱。❤

以下是英文版，主要是为看不懂中文的几位 crypto 好朋友准备的。 :D

2023 Annual Summary

When you read this line, first of all, thank you for your support all this time.

This piece is specifically written for my subscribers of Mirror and The Alpha K Telegram Channel, and the friends who have always been in the FT Room. It hasn’t been publicly posted or announced anywhere else.

In short, this article is a message for my friends who have always cared for and supported me.

2023 was an incredibly fulfilling year, with an abundance of new developments emerging, especially innovations beyond crypto.

For me, this year has been a rollercoaster of experiences:

• Hit on the head by a tree in the Amazon rainforest (twice);

• Nearly lost at sea in the Galapagos Islands;

• An accident caused by a Didi driver in Shanghai, resulting in a cervical vertebra injury that required rehabilitation (it was really painful, even more tormenting than a gallstone attack);

• Advised by doctors to 'rest more and think less' for at least 4 months;

• Bitten by ants in Thailand four days before the New Year, ending up with a swollen hand...

During this period, while enduring the dual torment of physical and mental pain, I also experienced a series of completely unexpected betrayals, including from people I had once financially and physically helped a lot.

However,

• As usual, I read a lot of books;

• Traveled across most of the globe;

• Made quite a few new friends;

• Clarified my strategies at crucial moments,

• never miss new opportunities in crypto world;

• Most of the friends who stayed with me also 'to da moon' together,

• (almost +0 🐣, haha~)

In the past, I often engaged in distant charity work and seemed to have endless empathy for everyone, essentially being a pushover and a free consultant, but terribly neglecting myself.

Now, I focus my attention on myself and the friends and family who stay by my side. I speak less and do more, not seeking purity, but pursuing genuine understanding.

As part of the annual summary, it's fitting to include some substantial content.

Regarding how to steadily find Alphas in Crypto, here are some points I wrote in The Alpha K Telegram Channel back in January this year. I hope you find these useful:

Yesterday, I saw a reminder from Xiao Mao in the ChainFeeds group that Matti recently updated the third and final part of his series "On 'Reflexivity' and 'Imitation'":

Part 3: https://wrongalot.substack.com/p/on-reflexivity-and-imitation-part-781

Part 1: https://wrongalot.substack.com/p/on-reflexivity-and-imitation

Part 2: https://wrongalot.substack.com/p/on-reflexivity-and-imitation-part

It seems I had read the Chinese versions of the first two parts before, so I reread all three articles in their original language.

In my opinion, although these articles can help most ordinary readers understand the crypto market, if one wants to become a deep participant, focusing solely on the existence of reflexivity can easily lead to an oversimplified framework when facing problems, making it difficult to increase the certainty of predictions. This is because it only describes the situation from one perspective and does not tell people how to face the current situation, change themselves, and make more advantageous decisions.

By the way, these articles and discussions related to other fields are interrelated. For example, the recent summary of logic in "汤质看本质" and when I wrote a short science fiction story six years ago, I tried to summarize the commonalities between I Ching, literary theory, and technological settings, thereby establishing a basic framework of thought. This has assisted me in creating hard-core science fiction and researching Crypto & Web3 over the years, continuously absorbing more information for summarization and making as effective predictions as possible (looking back, satisfied with the accuracy of most of them).

When we face a certain industry or track, we are dealing with numerous overlaps of such frameworks. It's necessary to understand that market, industry, technology, product, token economy, and trading are separate entities.

However, while reading Web3 articles, you'll find that most authors only construct a seemingly logical framework based on one aspect and quickly draw conclusions. The coincidental results of the market can lead to cognitive inertia, ultimately leading to gains and losses stemming from the same source and self-doubt. (Although some articles might have taken a roundabout way to reach a familiar narrative style for the sake of the readers' understanding, the goal is to convey conclusions.)

True prediction requires the predictor to see through narratives and appearances to identify the most critical influencing factors.

How to make as effective predictions as possible? (Taking Crypto as an example)

1)→ 2) → 3) → 4) → 1), with 5) at the central position.

1. World (Industry & Market): Draw in as much information as possible, objectively and without bias — whether it's being a human crawler or using tools and assistants to increase efficiency;

2. Participants (Project teams, users, market makers, exchanges, developers, traders, etc.): Understand as fully as possible who is involved in your area of interest, what characteristics most of them have, and collect enough information to help judge what decisions they are most likely to make when facing a specific issue. You can take participants as the main perspective and draw different frameworks;

3. Works: The results produced by 2), which can be anything or event;

4. Influenced: They are also participants in other frameworks, and their actions constitute the world;

5. “YI”: In this case, you can understand it as your core, which determines all your choices at critical moments and guides your judgment of the entire cycle. The more stable your core, the more complex problems you can handle, and the clearer your understanding of the entire framework, making decisions more beneficial for you.

Of course, this is no easy task. As I've already mentioned, the Crypto world is not a simple framework, but an overlap of frameworks with different perspectives. Even knowing this, one can still hit walls in their knowledge, and at times, feel overwhelmed by the endless learning.

Most people choose to cover as many options as possible to increase their hit rate, like some institutions' spray-and-pray investment style, some KOLs promoting new projects (increasing the likelihood of covering alpha and boosting influence), or some airdrop hunters mechanically interacting with every new project... As the industry matures and more projects emerge, this lazy approach becomes less viable, as it drains your energy and hinders progress.

However, before you train your prediction process to make quick judgments, you might fall into the mid-IQ trap mentioned in Matti's articles, starting to doubt whether you are wrong, or if it would be better to revert to the mindless all-in approach — you often think this way when the projects you've overthought are rising in value. Once you hesitate and decide to go all-in without thinking, you might end up stuck at the all-time high.

I don't believe the crypto world is completely unpredictable; if predictions are ineffective, the main issue is that the models established by the individuals are not sufficient to handle extremely complex system problems. Discussing only technology, product, market, industry, and trading can only lead to very uncertain conclusions, no different from gambling.

Ultimately, we still need to return to the most fundamental question: Being human, how do we understand and explore the world? How do we expand the boundaries of our knowledge through thinking and optimizing our thought processes?

Of course, if making money is still one of your goals, remember after you are able to predict quickly, you must return to basics and tell yourself: "To hell with it, go all-in!"

When the market is crazy enough, "To hell with it, go all-in!" should become "Buy first, study later," or even not study at all, and take a break for a certain period, because your model tells you that the decisive participants are, at that moment, and you need to prioritize the framework with them as the main perspective to draw conclusions.

When you learn to increase your execution power at any time and trust your knowledge to make decisions, complex thinking will be transformed into more powerful actions and results, serving as a bonus to encourage you to continue moving forward.

P.S.

This week, I went from a small Japanese area in Bangkok to Ban Lamphu near the mouth of the river, a place so remote it hardly feels like Bangkok. If not for the occasional Thai script in some alleys, I would have thought I was in Tainan or a community in Vietnam.

I spent 6 Thai baht to take a local boat to the other side, crossed a bridge to the center of the river, where there's a small island almost submerged in water. On the island is a military fortress called Butterfly Castle, which played a significant role during the Siamese era. Standing in an empty ruin, I was reminded of stopping at a fortress ruin at the end of a hike in Sarajevo.

Rather than living in the same place for a long time, I prefer a nomadic life, striving to be a global citizen. During this process, I still constantly train my brain in prediction, constantly encountering new worlds, remembering unfamiliar place names and environments, involuntarily recalling similar places, and summarizing them, eventually forming my own understanding of the physical world. (As mentioned earlier, there are moments when literary inspiration also emerges.)

Just like when we did reviews on DAppChaser, insisting on testing before reviewing, we should keep exploring the world like children, constantly asking ourselves what kind of life we want to live in the future, what roles we want to play, and then making decisions, even if it means coming full circle back to the starting point.

There are countless simpletons in the world, but few who return to their original simplicity. No good or bad, only choices and consequences.

At the end of this article, there are no NFTs, only blessings: Hope everyone has a peaceful and safe 2024.

I think a big reason why the world is in such a mess right now is that most people overthink about others' affairs while neglecting their own.

If you are a creator like I once was, hope you can be gentler and more focused on yourself in the coming year. Only a strong and stable self can live a splendid life in this complex world and sustainably help others.

In summary, thank you all. ❤