There’s been too many times in this bullrun where I’ve thought “jesus christ this has to be the top”, usually after an overvalued and ridiculous asset crashes and burns. But it ends up not being the top. Why are these top signals so useless?
This run has been really different for a couple of key reasons:
- We have multiple cyclical markets within one overall market. E.g DeFi token bear market while NFTs pump to the moon. This is insane, previous cycles would rise and and fall based on BTC, but now boomercoin has become stupidly irrelevant in these moon missions. There’s a lot of money flowing in different sectors within the industry now.
- Money is rotating within crypto because there’s less opportunities outside of it than ever. This relates to macro (whack) but it’s here. When money printing went ballistic in March 2020, stocks became the new bonds and crypto became the new stocks. There is no shortage of institutional money now, a16z and Paradigm are raising in a month what the crypto VC industry was as a whole in 2018. Crypto is finally lindy enough to be the most volatile asset in a fund manager’s arsenal.
- Access, access, access. Back in 2017, the shitcoin casino was played inside centralized exchanges. You’d buy a random altcoin /biz/ shilled on KuCoin / BitGrail / Cryptopia, with the hopes of it making it to the pantheon of Binance. If you were really degenerate you’d buy on EtherDelta, a really shit DEX built on orderbooks instead of as an AMM, on the hopes of it making into a low-tier exchange. The dark days of shitcoin trading.
Today, normies can buy on Coinbase, move to their Coinbase Wallet, and have access to every shitcoin known to man on Uniswap. A far cry from 2017, where’d you have to be KYC’d and scammed by 4 different exchanges just to enter a ponzi.
This is all brings me to the point of this article: for the first the first time in human history, we’ve broken all barriers to invest in bullshit. Thanks, crypto.
The SEC stopped you from investing in AirBnB and other tech companies pre-IPO, but they can’t do shit if you want to invest in the next billion dollar protocol. Likewise, they can’t protect you when you decide to go all in on MILF Coin. The institution that has “protected” Americans for nearly 100 years is completely useless now, no wonder the suits don’t like Hayden. We’ve entered truly uncharted territory.
For the first time, we’re all participating in a global liquidity pool. It doesn’t matter if Americans don’t want to buy your fresh PFP NFT project, because there’s no shortage of rich Russians or South Koreans that might. And if your newly-launched DeFi protocol takes off, you might find an Indonesian barber providing liquidity so a Brazilian school teacher can buy it.
This pool has created the convergence of borderless, frictionless money and the global meme economy. Ideas moved fast at the dawn of the 21st century, there was no shortage of bullshit chain e-mails that made it from Timbuktu to Thailand in 48 hours. Now, money has finally caught up. I cannot wait to see the first meme-coin phenomena that has absolutely 0 American influence, and spreads across APAC.*
And In a lot of ways, this is the real end of the US Dollar as a reserve currency. The younger generation won’t find themselves escaping to American financial instruments and greenbacks to escape financial misery. They can just on-ramp to Ethereum and start investing / speculating there instead. Kids in Argentina will tell you they’d rather lose to CZ than their central bank. And JPow’s coveted treasury notes and bills will mean nothing to them.
Projects like Uniswap and OpenSea are amazing because they’re the first truly global marketplaces in human history. Yes you could’ve bought gold or American stocks before in the 3rd world, but odds are you were just buying abstractions and instruments. Now, we’re seeing money globally converge on-chain in a transparent manner.**
After watching Loot go from the price of a used 2001 Toyota Corolla to a G-Wagon in 72 hours, I thought we were done for. But I underestimated the amount of money floating around. Besides massive money printing, we’ve created a speculative battlefield where anyone can play. So remember, the next time you’re 1000% sure it’s the top, it’s probably not. There’s always a bigger fool waiting in line to get into the world’s greatest casino.
Max pain, baby.
* Upper middle class around the world have had access to American stocks for the past 50 years, but crypto opens up investing to seriously everyone. Kids in favelas can flip in the Solana NFT rug-warzone with just their Android phones. $PUSSYCOIN and other cat coins can pump entirely based off Latin American and African hype.
** Transparency is the other neat advantage of this new world. While I’m sure we’ll see nasty bullshit like CDO’s emerge in DeFi, we’ll also be able to see exactly where that money flowed to and from (even if the answer is just Tornado lol).