Let's start this off with some predictions.
Scott Alexander (of Astral Codex Ten) motivations and rules:
- The goal of the exercise is to calibrate my ability to know things
- The predictions will be graded based on what will be true by Jan 1, 2022
- I haven't done any additional research on these predictions for this post
Crypto Markets
- S&P above $4,184: 80%
- ... above $4600: 50%
- ... above .08 BTC: 25%
- BTC above $50K: 90%
- ... above $100K: 60%
- ETH above $2.5K: 90%
- ... above $5K: 75%
- ... above 0.05 BTC: 80%
- ... above 0.10 BTC: 50%
- DPI above $500: 80%
- ... above $1K: 60%
- ... above 0.15 ETH: 80%
- ... above 0.30 ETH: 40%
- Dominant narrative in crypto is digital gold: 40%
- ... is decentralized finance: 70%
- ... is non fungible tokens: 20%
- ... is web3: 5%
- We see a drawdown in BTC, ETH, or DPI of >40% over one week: 80%
- ... of >60% over one week: 25%
- Cryptopunk floor price greater than $60K: 80%
- ... greater than 1 BTC: 90%
- ... greater than 17 ETH: 50%
- Meebits floor price greater than $3K: 40%
- ... greater than 1 ETH: 20%
- ... greater than 0.5 ETH: 40%
- Most valuable NFT sale is greater than $70M: 10%
Crypto Usage
- FAANG company announces 1% or greater BTC exposure on balance sheet: 20%
- ... ETH exposure on balance sheet: 5%
- A top 20 bank directly lends through a DeFi lending protocol: 60%
- TVL in DeFi across major chains greater than $200B: 80%
- ... greater than $500B: 60%
- ... greater than $1T: 25%
- Losses due to hacks, exploits, rugs, etc. greater than $500M: 90%
- ... greater than $1B: 75%
- ... greater than $2B: 50%
- Pancakeswap volumes are greater than Uniswap volumes: 30%
- ETH 2.0 Merge occurs: 40%
- EIP 1559 occurs: 80%
- Diem launches: 80%
- ... with smart contracts: 10%
- ... with smart contracts usable by anybody (permissionless): 1%
- TVL on Ethereum roll-ups exceed TVL on Ethereum: 20%
- Exchange volumes on Ethereum roll-ups exceed exchange volumes on Ethereum: 10%
- TVL on an Ethereum killer exceeds TVL on Ethereum: 30%
- Exchange volumes on an Ethereum killer exceeds exchange volumes on Ethereum: 70%
- BTC ETF launches: 60%
- ETH ETF launches: 40%
- Stablecoin lending rates at Genesis are greater than 5%: 95%
- ... greater than 10%: 70%
- ... greater than 20%: 20%
- A private version of a DeFi use case (e.g. auctions, transactions) reaches 50% of the adoption of the public version: 1%
- ... reaches 25% of the adoption of the public version: 5%
- ... reaches 10% of the adoption of the public version: 10%
- Undercollateralized lending underwritten using on-chain activity surpasses $5M: 50%
- ... surpasses $10M: 40%
- ... surpasses $100M: 20%
- The plurality of personal accounts I see on my twitter feed are cartoon or anime avatars: 60%
- ... are NFT avatars: 40%
- ... are real faces: 10%
Crypto Venture
- A crypto fund raises greater than $1B: 80%
- ... greater than $2B: 60%
- A pre-product seed deal gets done at greater than $250M equity or $500M token valuation: 75%
- ... greater than $500M equity or $1B token valuation: 40%
- Most high profile preseed/seed deals will be led by DAOs: 15%
- ... will be led by traditional VCs: 10%
- ... will be led by crypto funds with greater than $200M AUM: 80%
- Most high profile launches will be fair launches: 0.1%
Politics and Macro
- Capital gains taxes increase meaningfully: 10%
- A wealth tax is enacted: 5%
- ... in California: 10%
- Polling suggests republicans will win the senate in the 2022 midterms: 70%
- ... will win the house in the 2022 midterms: 70%
- Newsom is recalled: 10%
- The COVID vaccine patents are suspended: 90%
- All COVID restrictions are lifted at the federal level: 80%
- ... in California: 70%
- Unemployment is greater than 4.5%: 20%
- ... is greater than 5%: 10%
- 10Y treasury rates greater than 1.5%: 80%
- ... greater than 2%: 60%
- ... greater than 2.5%: 25%
Work
- Work full time on Cozy: 99%
- redacted: 80%
- ... redacted: 70%
- ... redacted: 60%
- redacted: 40%
- Start a venture fund: 5%
Personal
- Write a morning journal more than 70% of days: 99%
- ... more than 80% of days: 95%
- ... more than 90% of days: 90%
- Write a blog post more than 70% of weeks (starting now): 80%
- ... more than 80% of weeks: 60%
- ... more than 90% of weeks: 50%
- Squat for reps over 285lbs: 95%
- ... over 300lbs: 90%
- ... over 350 lbs: 40%
- Weigh over 150lbs: 99%
- ... over 160lbs: 30%
- ... over 170lbs: 5%
- redacted: 20%
- ... redacted: 50%
- ... redacted: 80%
- Live in the same house: 95%
- House will have appreciated by more than 0%: 95%
- ... by more than 5%: 60%
- ... by more than 10%: 20%
- Read more than 50 books: 1%
- ... more than 40 books: 20%
- ... more than 25 books: 80%
- Donate greater than 10% of my net income: 95%
- ... greater than 1% of my total crypto holdings: 95%
- redacted: 90%
- ... redacted: 75%
- ... redacted: 40%
- Make greater than 10 angel investments: 99%
- ... greater than 20 angel investments: 60%
- ... greater than 50 angel investments: 20%
- Go to therapy on a regular schedule: 90%
- Married to Anna: 99%
- Parents alive: 99%
- Gary TikTok greater than 500K followers: 75%
- ... greater than 1M followers: 60%
- Anna cast in major show or movie: 30%
- ... in major commercial: 40%