538 gives the Dallas Mavericks a 7% chance to make the playoffs entering Thursday night’s action. ESPN gives them an 8.8% chance. That’s quite bad, especially when considering they’re a team that (1) has Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and (2) had over a 90% chance by both estimates just two months ago.
Since the All-Star Break, the Mavs are 7-13 with the 8th best offense (118.8 ORtg) and 23rd best defense (119.2 DRtg). It’s as clear as day that the defense is the issue in Dallas, and it seriously needs to be addressed; it could be the reason we don’t see the reigning Western Conference runner-ups, for lack of better phrasing, in the playoffs this year.
Neither Christian Wood nor Dwight Powell are necessarily great defensive bigs, and Powell especially isn’t a great defensive rebounding big. Opponents are easily able to finish inside and get offensive boards, just eating apart the Mavs. These two combined play 38 minutes per game, so there is 10 minutes per game neither is on the floor, opening up the defense even more.
Just look at players playing over 20 minutes per game in the last 20 games and think about the overall defensive talent that the Mavs are trotting out there: Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Reggie Bullock, Josh Green, Maxi Kleber, Christian Wood. Which of these guys is really bringing defense night in and night out and truly consistently rather effective on that end? None.
Doncic and Irving are both really, really talented offensive players. Doncic is averaging 32.7 points and 8.1 assists per game on 61.1 TS%, while (for the whole season) Irving is averaging 27.1 points and 5.5 assists with a 61.3 TS%. These two have been really good, and their three point shooters have been shooting the ball well from beyond the arc over the last 20 games (THJ: 49.6 3PT%, 7.4 3PA / Bullock: 40.7%, 5.7 / Josh Green: 38.6%, 2.9 / Jaden Hardy: 49.3%, 4.7). Despite this, it hasn’t translated to consistent wins, and that’s because of the defense. All this offense has been for nothing because they can’t get a stop on the other end of the court.
Tim Hardaway Sr. going out on a limb and saying Doncic and Irving aren’t leaders isn’t a great look either. Doncic just led the Mavs to the Western Conference Finals last year; saying he isn’t and can’t be a leader is absurd. It’s also rather unfortunate that this may cause issues in the locker room.
Kyrie Irving has a Player Option that he likely is going to opt out of. He’s expected to explore his options in free agency, and the Mavs are going to have to fight to keep him. It’s really important that they do keep him because this roster outside of him and Luka is rather bleak.
It’s really sad that this team may not be in the playoffs because we just saw a worse roster on paper in the Western Conference Finals last season. We saw Luka Doncic play out of his mind in the playoffs. A year later, they may not be in the 1st round.
Charlie Spungin , NBA Analyst