Digits Weekly

发布于 2023-04-14到 Mirror 阅读

Thunder Keep Rolling

Brandon Ingram gets swung the ball in the backcourt with 3:22 left in the tied 108-108 game. Shooting 57.1% in the clutch this season, he’s clearly the guy in the clutch for the Pelicans; it only makes sense to go to him. Lu Dort, nicknamed the Dorture Chamber for his on-ball defensive ability -- AKA the guy to get a stop for the Thunder --, picks him up at the 28 foot mark.

Ingram hits Dort with a difficult between-the-legs into a spinning floater. Except Dort guards it nearly flawlessly, forcing an Ingram miss. There’s no box out, resulting in an Ingram dunk after he gets his own offensive board. Timeout Thunder, down 108-110, with 3:12 on the clock.

That’s what happened in Wednesday night’s Play-In game. After this timeout, the Thunder would go on a 15-8 run en route to victory. Their performance to close it out was incredible, leading them to match up versus the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight to potentially make the playoffs.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 32 points on 62.7 TS% and was absurd down the stretch on both ends (film coming soon…). Josh Giddey had 31 points, 9 rebounds, and 10 assists with a 61.8 TS%. Lu Dort scored 27, a season-high, on 77.05% TS. And although Jalen Williams only scored 11 points on 14 shots, he still brought it defensively; CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram shot a combined 2-8 when guarded by Williams last night.

This is practically the Thunder’s core 4, all playing above 36 minutes (SGA, Giddey, Williams exceeded 40 minutes). The bench scored merely 14 points, really forcing these core Thunder players to make plays. And that they did; let’s check the film at the end of this game, which really shows how the Thunder got to this point this season.

A bucket here was huge for OKC, having not scored in a minute and a half. The Thunder want McCollum, a lackluster defender, guarding SGA for obvious reasons -- it’s a clear mismatch. It’s why Herb Jones was the primary defender on SGA, guarding him for a total of nearly 10 minutes last night. Refusing to switch, Jones and McCollum have a soft double team on SGA, who finds Giddey at the free throw line.

This is quite literally the perfect spot for Josh Giddey, a high IQ playmaker. He had 9 assists in the game and averaged 6.2 over the course of the season for a reason. He’s playing a 3v2 and is able to easily diagnose the defense. Jalen Williams, with his amazing feel and cutting ability (1.41 PPP on cuts this season), cuts right as Jaxson Hayes rotates to stop a Giddey floater. It’s just beautiful offense that all started because of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

SGA could find himself finish on the All-NBA 1st Team for good reason. He averaged 31.4 points per game on 62.6 TS% with only 21% of his shots being assisted on. He’s a pure bucket-getter, and the Pels have to look to stop him here. They cannot let him have McCollum on him here because it would be an easy blow-by for the league’s best driver (league leading 23.9 drives per game, 17.1 PPG off of drives, 62.8 TS% off of drives).

https://youtu.be/tdwLO3g-R28

Why am I showing a Brandon Ingram bucket in an OKC column? Because it’s tough. This is good team defense by OKC, as Dort stays attached and Jaylin Williams makes an incredible defensive play to contest the shot. It’s just tough. This happens again later, as Dort fights through two screens (one off ball and one on ball), and Ingram drains another tough bucket.

Dort takes on what may be the most difficult matchups in the league night in and night out; BBall Index’s Matchup Difficulty statistic places him within the 100th percentile. He’s this team’ perimeter stopper as a premier screen navigator due to his elite physicality, aided by his 220 pound frame. He is a large part of the Thunder maintaining a relatively league average defense on the year despite having no legitimate rim protector.

Jaylin Williams was named the starting center in mid-February and never looked back. Although he is not necessarily a good rim protector, he brings a clear defensive impact with his high motor, leading to contests like these.

https://youtu.be/OKBxDwFPSc4

This is why SGA is elite and an All-NBA 1st Team candidate in one clip. Ingram looks to attack SGA with Dort off of him, but it doesn’t go well. Along with his clear offensive step this season, SGA took a clear leap on the defensive side of the court, both on and off of the ball. Utilizing his combination of IQ, athleticism, and length, he has become a legitimately impactful defender and a clear defensive playmaker (1.6 SPG, 1 BPG).

Going at SGA this game was a disaster for not only Ingram but the entire Pelicans defense. For Ingram, he was 2-5 with 2 turnovers when guarded by Shai. But the entire Pels defense kept going at him, and it kept failing. They shot 8-24 when guarded by him, and he finished with 3 steals.

This is just amazing by Shai to stay in front, force a steal, and come down the other side of the court and absolutely contort his body to get past Trey Murphy for the layup. The ability to move like this (being the way he did to get to the rim) is what makes him the league’s best driver, both statistically and by the eye test. And look here…

https://youtu.be/qn6iAsa0YwI

This is insane. Insane. The ability of Shai to be coming downhill quite fast right into Herb Jones, absorb the contact, and maintain his balance to hit a ridiculous one-legged fader is just ludicrous skill. How many guys can do that in the league? You’re counting that number on one hand.

Herb Jones played really good defense too, also absorbing the contact to stay in front and get a contest. Is there much more he can do? It’s just better offense by one of the league’s most talented players. Now up 115-114, it’s time to play defense.

https://youtu.be/djB1-0EgcHI

And defense, they -- AKA Lu Dort -- do. This possession is just an on-ball defense masterclass from Dort, forcing Brandon Ingram to exert a lot of energy and ultimately take a tough fadeaway.

Even before the inbound, Dort fights through the Valanciunas screen. He slides perfectly (let me emphasize: perfectly) and keeps his hands up to force BI to have to pick the ball up. When Ingram gets the ball back in the post, which isn’t made easy with Dort’s physicality, Ingram is forced into a super tough fadeaway, and they can’t all find the bottom of the net.

The Thunder go on to hit their free throws, and that’s game. The end of this game showcased what has made the Thunder themselves, highlighted by SGA.

The Thunder are now set to face the Timberwolves. There is no great reference point for what is expected since these teams last faced off in December with no Rudy Gobert or Karl-Anthony Towns. It will likely be difficult for OKC to slow down Karl-Anthony Towns, who just torched the Lakers in the first three quarters of the previous game, as Jaylin Williams really doesn’t seem up to that task. Dort will get the Anthony Edwards matchup, but beyond that, matchups should be intriguing. The Timberwolves size is much different compared to the Pelicans’ multitude of wings, an easier defensive matchup for OKC.

Jaden McDaniels’ absence is great for the Thunder, as Shai should face much less defensive resistance, particularly on the perimeter. He will still have to face Rudy Gobert in the paint, though, so depending on what Gobert shows up could be the swing factor of this game. The Thunder have to be feeling good after this good win against the Pels, but there’s certainly matchups concerns that arise that make the Timberwolves the betting favorite.

Charlie Spungin , NBA Analyst

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