With over 25 years of expertise in technical analysis and market cycle forecasting, Bob Loukas, a renowned authority, believes the current moment presents a strong investment opportunity.

At Which Stage Are We Currently Situated in This Crypto Market Mycle?

For four years in a row, Bob used a portion of his wealth to experiment with an investment journey he calls the “4-year journey”, where, with his method, he multiplied his capital 10 times, from $170,000 to over a million dollars.

Recently, Bob Loukas shared on his YouTube channel with more than 110,000 subscribers under the title “Green lights”, discussing topics related to the market cycle, what stage we are in that cycle, and news related to Bitcoin ETF.

He implies that we are in an early stage of the growth cycle, and this is also a historic moment for us to see the best of how the cycle works.

What we need to do is to have psychological preparation, to plan observations and related action plans.

His Tweet

Below are the key points from his sharing:

Buying Signals in the Cycle

According to Bob Loukas, when looking at the monthly time frame of the Bitcoin price, we can see that this cycle is starting the same way the previous one happened.

The top of the previous cycle fell around the 35th month, which is also the time when Bitcoin reached ATH (November 2021, when Bitcoin reached above $65,000), and the bottom fell around the 49th month (January 2023, when Bitcoin was around $16,000).

“The most difficult thing to distinguish is the bear market - where investors are often psychologically trapped. Usually, the price will go up, and investors will have a harder time buying,” he said.

According to Bob, even though the price until July 13 was around $29,000-30,000/BTC, about twice the recent bottom (then around $16,000/BTC).

“When viewed over a 4-year cycle, we are "extremely early" players.” - Bob Loukas

Fasten your seat belt. Get into position

Bob said that many factors still make investors afraid and do not dare to put money down at the time of July 2023, such as macroeconomics (macro) and bad market sentiment (negative sentiment).

Bob further shared the YouTube video title, “Green Lights”, here implying that we have had a lousy year as we have seen a price drop of more than 75% since peaking at $65,000 a Bitcoin.

Many investors have been trapped and lost a lot of money for any reason, such as the bankruptcy of major exchanges.

Bob believes that the market at this stage will make investors’ psychology stuck in the line of thinking that the market has fallen into a downtrend.

To restore confidence to investors and the general market that is suffering from the terrible fall of Bitcoin, the price will need to rise and rise very strongly for them to understand that there has been a transition from a bear market (bearish) to a bull market (bullish).

“The harsh truth is that when the price has risen strongly enough to convince investors to jump in, it is too late because they are no longer in a good position and potentially risky if there is a decrease in volatility” - Bob Loukas

He added that, in addition to the players who lost their assets, other investors have already been waiting for good times to enter their positions.

So if We Haven’t Bought Yet, Should We Buy Now?

There is no correct answer, says Bob, because the crypto market and Bitcoin is also highly volatile asset class. We can see Bitcoin drop another 30-40%, and the market is always full of surprises.

According to Bob, a new cycle has begun. We are about 6 months into a 4-year cycle, and he implies that the new cycle starts around January 2023. From there, Bob asks the question:

The previous two cycles peaked at the 35th month, and if you are a fan of the 4-year cycle pattern with Bitcoin, what do you expect now that the tops and bottoms seem to have been confirmed? If you realize you are already at an early stage of the cycle, why not prepare yourself for a position now? - Bob Loukas

According to Bob, at the moment, there is an inevitable consolidation. The late participants of the previous cycle are gradually accepting to leave the market (i.e., will sell out) as the price rises around $30,000 per Bitcoin.

However, the whales will look at the market differently; smart money or intelligent investors are still buying. Of course, the amount of Bitcoin the whales collected is relatively large and is likely to impact the market partially.

The weekly chart clearly shows that there have been 12 weeks of price gains, double since the last bottom (if that's the bottom). It was followed by 8 weeks of descending, and there was confirmation of a substantial increase beyond the downtrend line.

So What Do We Do Next ?

According to Bob, the price is likely to rise to $33,000 - $34,000 per BTC, where there will be a reaction of the old resistance and if Bitcoin price can break through this level, then straight to $44,000 - $46,000.

And after each such rally, Bob sees that the market will have downward corrections on the weekly frame with a range of about 30-50% every 6 months; he closely observes this number and has proven consistent over a long period.

Sometimes “Doing nothing” Is Also A Strategy

If we approach this strategy with a 4-year cycle, i.e. the vision and way of trading will be on large time frames like weeks and months, we will have very little work to do and often choose a good time to buy and sell. The goal of this 4-year cycle Bitcoin investment method is to increase the number of Bitcoins we have obtained over many cycles from the beginning.

Sometimes “doing nothing” is also a strategy. If we approach this strategy with a 4-year cycle, i.e. the vision and way of trading will be on large time frames like weeks and months, we will have very little work to do and often choose a good time to buy and sell. This 4-year cycle Bitcoin investment method aims to increase the number of Bitcoins we have obtained over many cycles from the beginning.

Sometimes we should act only a few times or even do nothing in the market. This can be seen as a strategy, and executing it according to plan is an art.

Bob remains faithful to holding Bitcoin most of the time, but the problem is that if we hold Bitcoin for too long, we will take the risk. If you choose to hold Bitcoin long-term and do nothing for up to a decade, you need a sell-take-profit strategy, as this part of your profits will protect you against sharp drops of 75-80%.

Bob calls this an “active hold” strategy, which requires only a few actions over four years as follows:

• Sell when the market is euphoric and overly optimistic (e.g. Celebrities taking part in Super Bowl commercials)

• Buy when the market is depressed, so hopeless that investors cannot accept that reality.

• In addition to the above two things, you only need to do “Do nothing”. There are some other success tips, such as:

• Enter the market with a moderate amount of capital and expect when the price drops to more than 50%, you can still withstand that mentality.

• Remember that new cycles and periods of sharp market declines are challenging and require psychological preparation. What does Bob Lukas think about the Bitcoin ETF? Bob thinks Bitcoin ETF-related news will be the headline story, potentially becoming a growth driver for the early part of the cycle. As for Bob, he doesn’t like the implementation of a Bitcoin ETF for several reasons.

ETFs are funds registered with the US Stock Exchange (SEC) to allow investors to deposit funds together. The function of the fund is to invest in various financial products on their behalf.

And for Bitcoin ETF the ETF will use money mainly to invest in Bitcoin to reduce many processes and troubles related to knowledge or storing assets for new investors (not understanding blockchain). In return, the ETFs will split the profits with them.

While Bob doesn’t like the implementation of a Bitcoin ETF, on the plus side, this is good for the price of Bitcoin.

Bob thinks the mass influx of large funds like BlackRock or Fidelity into the application for this Bitcoin ETF service is quite interesting. And if these Bitcoin ETFs are approved, the amount of money pouring into the Crypto market is immense and could reach unbelievable levels.

Specifically, Bob believes that the Bitcoin ETF in the form of spot (spot) is different from the long/short derivative form, which will still dominate soon.

Based on his experience, Bob finds that at this stage in the cycle, the price will react well and agree to positive stories, such as accepting Bitcoin ETF.

In trading, the motto of some investors like Bob Lukas is “buy the rumours sell the news”. So, if the Bitcoin ETF is accepted, Bob advises us to look closely to decide because, in his prediction, the price will increase but followed by the possibility of a drop of more than 30%.

Will The New Cycle Come Sooner Than Expected?

According to Bob, markets are cyclical. However, it is only sometimes required as it depends on many factors, such as news, legislation, technology, government intervention, etc.

All of the above factors can cause the market cycle to change, happening sooner or later.

One term he uses to describe the possibility of the upcoming cycle is left-translated.

Usually, the cycle will take up to 48 months, and if split in half, 24 months will be the equilibrium point in terms of the time of a cycle. The translation is a measure of the percentage of uptime versus downtime.

For example, the top of the previous cycle usually occurs at the 35th month, and the price will fall from the 36th to the 48th month, which means that the period of increase (35 months) is more than the period of decline (12 months) in a cycle.

There are two possible scenarios of how fast or slow the cycle swings can be:

• If this cycle peak comes earlier, before the 24th month in a 4-year cycle, this is called left-translated. Similar to Bob’s assessment, i.e. before January 2025.

• Conversely, if this cycle peak occurs later, i.e. after the 24th month, it is called right-translated. Similar to Bob’s comment, that is, after January 2025.

Bob thinks this cycle will have a shift earlier than the 24th-month median, i.e. left-translated. This is entirely different from the 4-year cycle pattern, and usually, Bitcoin will peak at the 35th (i.e. right-translated) month that he has made available to everyone.Why, in this cycle, do you reject the 4-year cycle model that you have worked so hard to popularize?

He shared that through more than 25 years of experience trading many different assets, as the market has gradually formed patterns, many investors are more aware of his “4-years-one-cycle” model and rely on it.On events like Bitcoin halving for investment calculation.

He believes that:

“When beliefs and investment methods are so obvious, like investing in Bitcoin Halving, that occurs regularly, at least 3 cycles have passed, the market will often do the opposite.” Bob Loukas Specifically, in this case, the peak of this cycle may not be present at the 35th month like the last 3 cycles. Conversely, Bitcoin’s top will be left-translated, meaning the price will peak earlier than previous cycles.

His second argument is that market cycles occur over periods greater than four years, such as 16 years. 16 years represents many market cycles of previous asset classes, such as stocks. So 2026 or early 2027 is a possible time to end Bitcoin’s 16-year cycle and start a new one.

He added that the first 16-year cycle of Bitcoin is made up of 4 4-year cycles, accompanied by an increase in price throughout since the beginning. So, in the next 16-year cycle, Bitcoin will see a correction to some extent after a long period of growth.

In terms of this cycle, if left translated, we expect the market to peak sometime between January and June 2024. There are 3 points to note:

• Peaking should happen right before the next halving (February-June 2024).

• Belief in the “super cycle” will become crazier.

• Selling during the market peaking in the period mentioned above is not easy.

  Connecting to Bob’s thesis 2, there is a risk that the “supercycle” won’t happen.

A supercycle can be understood as an extended period of good economic growth that results in a surge in demand for goods and assets beyond what manufacturers can generate. And in the economy, when demand exceeds supply, the price of goods will increase.

Bob added that to minimize the risk of not appearing “super cycle, " we need to base on the peaking data to take profits and keep apart to maintain the game and prevent the super cycle from happening.

“The purpose of investing is not to achieve 100% win rate or accuracy based on your projections. It’s the bigger story; we need to evaluate the possibilities and optimize profits along the way.” Bob Loukas

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Many sources influenced this article. In particular, I should note:Coin98.net

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