Posted on May 12, 2022Read on Mirror.xyz

Terra Luna has collapsed is the community also collapsing?

The Terra Luna ecosystem was attacked and is fighting its existence. $LUNA the native token has collapsed below $0.03 at the time of this writing and the stable coin $UST is trading below $0.40. The ecosystem has taken a major blow in the last couple of days and the coins are on the brink of death. The block production on the Terra blockchain was even halted for a brief period because the low price of $LUNA made it very susceptible to attacks.

But soon afterward the Terra Blockchain resumed block production with updated code. This begs the question of whether the ecosystem can rebuild from this catastrophic blow. Is the community strong enough not to abandon the project and rebuild? The economics look very grim for the Terra Luna ecosystem at the moment. However, web3 is driven to a large part by the community which is why it is important to take a look at how it has developed over the last couple of days.

We analyzed around 50k Tweets from the last few days (05.05.22 – 11.05.22) whether they were positively or negatively connotated towards the Terra Luna ecosystem.

The chart below depicts how the negative sentiment picked up significantly over the last couple of days. Interestingly, there were already early warning signs from the community around the 5th and 6th of May with negative sentiment picking up quite a bit.

Despite the sudden and hard crash of both $LUNA and $UST, there is still a substantial share of Tweets remaining positive. Some of these are people showing compassion for the community others are people believing that the project can rebuild, or even hoping for a miracle.

To make more sense of the sentiment development we programmed the AI model, we built to make this report, to analyze which topics were mentioned most often in the positive and negative Tweets.

Negative word cloud

The negative word cloud shows clearly the topics people on crypto Twitter have most likely heard. That Luna is down, people lost millions, whales have attacked the protocol, the market as a whole is going down and in general, everything is a fiasco.

Positive word cloud

The positive word cloud is quite interesting, as one of the most used terms in positive tweets is holding. Some other interesting ones are that people are saying it is a learning experience and was an experiment. People are also talking about this being an opportunity and that it can be successful again or even showing support.

In general, the word clouds are adding some interesting context to how people see the situation. But to get the clearest picture we also surfaced, with the help of our model, the most relevant positive and negative Tweets so people can read through them and make their own judgment on how the ecosystem can evolve from here.

Most of the positive Tweets seem to come from community members that are deep within the ecosystem and believe in the ability of Do Kwon and the Luna Foundation Guard to rebuild the ecosystem.

Zoom in to read

Most of the negative comments seem to come from people outside the ecosystem that see the death of Terra Luna as a certainty and are fearing the repercussions for the wider crypto ecosystem.

Zoom in to read

So is the Terra Luna community also collapsing?

What can be said for certain is that a large portion of the sentiment has recently shifted from positive to negative. It is also apparent that there are a few people that strongly believe in holding and that the ecosystem can be rebuilt.

However, the community is just one thing in such a complex product as the Terra Luna ecosystem is. This report is also just a snapshot in time and things are moving very fast at the moment. We will continue to monitor the community and how it develops in the future.

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